Nomogram For Preoperative Prediction Of Microvascular Invasion Risk In Hepatocellular Carcinoma

OBJECTIVE: To preoperatively predict the microvascular invasion (MVI) risk in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) using nomogram. METHODS: A retrospective cohort of 513 patients with HCC hospitalized at Xiangya Hospital between January 2014 and December 2018 was included in the study. Univariate and multivariate analysis was performed to identify the independent risk factors for MVI. Based on the independent risk factors, nomogram was established to preoperatively predict the MVI risk in HCC. The accuracy of nomogram was evaluated by using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: Tumor size (OR=1.17, 95% CI: 1.11–1.23, p<0.001), preoperative AFP level greater than 155 ng/mL (OR=1.65, 95% CI: 1.13–2.39, p=0.008) and NLR (OR=1.14, 95% CI: 1.00–1.29, p=0.042) were the independent risk factors for MVI. Incorporating these 3 factors, nomogram was established with the concordance index of 0.71 (95% CI, 0.66–0.75) and well-fitted calibration curves. DCA confirmed that using this nomogram added more benefit compared with the measures that treat all patients or treat none patients. At the cutoff value of predicted probability ≥0.44, the model demonstrated sensitivity of 61.64%, specificity of 71.53%, positive predictive value (PPV) of 64.13%, and negative predictive value (NPV) of 69.31%. CONCLUSION: Nomogram was established for preoperative prediction of the MVI risk in HCC patients, and better therapeutic choice will be made if it was applied in clinical practice.