Trajectories of Haemoglobin and incident stroke risk: a longitudinal cohort study

BACKGROUND: Studies have demonstrated that high or low haemoglobin increases the risk of stroke. Previous studies, however, performed only a limited number of haemoglobin measurements, while there are dynamic haemoglobin changes over the course of a lifetime. This longitudinal cohort study aimed to classify the long-term trajectory of haemoglobin and examine its association with stroke incidence. METHODS: The cohort consisted of 11,431 participants (6549 men) aged 20 to 50 years whose haemoglobin was repeatedly measured 3–9 times during 2004–2015. A latent class growth mixture model (LCGMM) was used to classify the long-term trajectory of haemoglobin concentrations, and hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) according to the Cox proportional hazard model were used to investigate the association of haemoglobin trajectory types with the risk of stroke. RESULTS: Three distinct trajectory types, high-stable (n = 5395), normal-stable (n = 5310), and decreasing (n = 726), were identified, with stroke incidence rates of 2.7, 1.9 and 3.2 per 1000 person-years, respectively. Compared to the normal-stable group, after adjusting for the baseline covariates, the decreasing group had a 2.94-fold (95% CI 1.22 to 7.06) increased risk of developing stroke. Strong evidence was observed in men, with an HR (95% CI) of 4.12 (1.50, 11.28), but not in women (HR = 1.66, 95% CI 0.34, 8.19). Individuals in the high-stable group had increased values of baseline covariates, but the adjusted HR (95% CI), at 1.23 (0.77, 1.97), was not significant for the study cohort or for men and women separately. CONCLUSIONS: This study revealed that a decreasing haemoglobin trajectory was associated with an increased risk of stroke in men. These findings suggest that long-term decreasing haemoglobin levels might increase the risk of stroke.