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New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding
Most estimates of global mean sea-level rise this century fall below 2 m. This quantity is comparable to the positive vertical bias of the principle digital elevation model (DEM) used to assess global and national population exposures to extreme coastal water levels, NASA’s SRTM. CoastalDEM is a new...
Autores principales: | , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2019
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6820795/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31664024 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-12808-z |
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author | Kulp, Scott A. Strauss, Benjamin H. |
author_facet | Kulp, Scott A. Strauss, Benjamin H. |
author_sort | Kulp, Scott A. |
collection | PubMed |
description | Most estimates of global mean sea-level rise this century fall below 2 m. This quantity is comparable to the positive vertical bias of the principle digital elevation model (DEM) used to assess global and national population exposures to extreme coastal water levels, NASA’s SRTM. CoastalDEM is a new DEM utilizing neural networks to reduce SRTM error. Here we show – employing CoastalDEM—that 190 M people (150–250 M, 90% CI) currently occupy global land below projected high tide lines for 2100 under low carbon emissions, up from 110 M today, for a median increase of 80 M. These figures triple SRTM-based values. Under high emissions, CoastalDEM indicates up to 630 M people live on land below projected annual flood levels for 2100, and up to 340 M for mid-century, versus roughly 250 M at present. We estimate one billion people now occupy land less than 10 m above current high tide lines, including 230 M below 1 m. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-6820795 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2019 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-68207952019-10-31 New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding Kulp, Scott A. Strauss, Benjamin H. Nat Commun Article Most estimates of global mean sea-level rise this century fall below 2 m. This quantity is comparable to the positive vertical bias of the principle digital elevation model (DEM) used to assess global and national population exposures to extreme coastal water levels, NASA’s SRTM. CoastalDEM is a new DEM utilizing neural networks to reduce SRTM error. Here we show – employing CoastalDEM—that 190 M people (150–250 M, 90% CI) currently occupy global land below projected high tide lines for 2100 under low carbon emissions, up from 110 M today, for a median increase of 80 M. These figures triple SRTM-based values. Under high emissions, CoastalDEM indicates up to 630 M people live on land below projected annual flood levels for 2100, and up to 340 M for mid-century, versus roughly 250 M at present. We estimate one billion people now occupy land less than 10 m above current high tide lines, including 230 M below 1 m. Nature Publishing Group UK 2019-10-29 /pmc/articles/PMC6820795/ /pubmed/31664024 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-12808-z Text en © The Author(s) 2019 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
spellingShingle | Article Kulp, Scott A. Strauss, Benjamin H. New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding |
title | New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding |
title_full | New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding |
title_fullStr | New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding |
title_full_unstemmed | New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding |
title_short | New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding |
title_sort | new elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6820795/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31664024 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-12808-z |
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