Incidence Rates for Tuberculosis Among HIV Infected Patients in Northern Tanzania

Background: HIV and tuberculosis (TB) are leading infectious diseases, with a high risk of co-infection. The risk of TB in people living with HIV (PLHIV) is high soon after sero-conversion and increases as the CD4 counts are depleted. Methodology: We used routinely collected data from Care and Treatment Clinics (CTCs) in three regions in northern Tanzania. All PLHIV attending CTCs between January 2012 to December 2017 were included in the analysis. TB incidence was defined as cases started on anti-TB medications divided by the person-years of follow-up. Poisson regression with frailty models were used to determine incidence rate ratios (IRR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for predictors of TB incidences among HIV positive patients. Results: Among 78,748 PLHIV, 405 patients developed TB over 195,296 person-years of follow-up, giving an overall TB incidence rate of 2.08 per 1,000 person-years. There was an increased risk of TB incidence, 3.35 per 1,000 person-years, in hospitals compared to lower level health facilities. Compared to CD4 counts of <350 cells/μl, a high CD4 count was associated with lower TB incidence, 81% lower for a CD4 count of 350–500 cells/μl (IRR 0.19, 95% CI 0.04–0.08) and 85% lower for those with a CD4 count above 500 cells/μl (IRR 0.15, 95% CI 0.04–0.64). Independently, those taking ART had 66% lower TB incidences (IRR 0.34, 95% CI 0.15–0.79) compared to those not taking ART. Poor nutritional status and CTC enrollment between 2008 and 2012 were associated with higher TB incidences IRR 9.27 (95% CI 2.15–39.95) and IRR 2.97 (95% CI 1.05–8.43), respectively. Discussion: There has been a decline in TB incidence since 2012, with exception of the year 2017 whereby there was higher TB incidence probably due to better diagnosis of TB following a national initiative. Among HIV positive patients attending CTCs, poor nutritional status, low CD4 counts and not taking ART treatment were associated with higher TB incidence, highlighting the need to get PLHIV on treatment early, and the need for close monitoring of CD4 counts. Data from routinely collected and available health services can be used to provide evidence of the epidemiological risk of TB.