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Development and comparison of forecast models of hand-foot-mouth disease with meteorological factors
Hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) is an acute intestinal virus infectious disease which is one of major public health problems in mainland China. Previous studies indicated that HFMD was significantly influenced by climatic factors, but the associated factors were different in different areas and few s...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
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Nature Publishing Group UK
2019
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6821763/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31666565 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-52044-5 |
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author | Fu, Tao Chen, Ting Dong, Zhen-Bin Luo, Shu-Ying Miao, Ziping Song, Xiu-Ping Huang, Ru-Ting Sun, Ji-Min |
author_facet | Fu, Tao Chen, Ting Dong, Zhen-Bin Luo, Shu-Ying Miao, Ziping Song, Xiu-Ping Huang, Ru-Ting Sun, Ji-Min |
author_sort | Fu, Tao |
collection | PubMed |
description | Hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) is an acute intestinal virus infectious disease which is one of major public health problems in mainland China. Previous studies indicated that HFMD was significantly influenced by climatic factors, but the associated factors were different in different areas and few study on HFMD forecast models was conducted. Here, we analyzed epidemiological characteristics of HFMD in Yiwu City, Zhejiang Province and constructed three forecast models. Overall, a total of 32554 HFMD cases were reported and 12 cases deceased in Yiwu City, Zhejiang Province. The incidence of HFMD peaked every other year and the curve of HFMD incidence had an approximately W-shape. The majority of HFMD cases were children and 95.76% cases aged ≤5 years old from 2008 to 2016. Furthermore, we constructed and compared three forecast models using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, negative binomial regression model (NBM), and quasi-Poisson generalized additive model (GAM). All the three models had high agreements between predicted values and observed values, while GAM fitted best. The exposure-response curve of monthly mean temperature and HFMD was approximately V-shaped. Our study explored epidemiological characteristics of HFMD in Yiwu City and provided accurate methods for early warning which would be great importance for the control and prevention of HFMD. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-6821763 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2019 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-68217632019-11-05 Development and comparison of forecast models of hand-foot-mouth disease with meteorological factors Fu, Tao Chen, Ting Dong, Zhen-Bin Luo, Shu-Ying Miao, Ziping Song, Xiu-Ping Huang, Ru-Ting Sun, Ji-Min Sci Rep Article Hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) is an acute intestinal virus infectious disease which is one of major public health problems in mainland China. Previous studies indicated that HFMD was significantly influenced by climatic factors, but the associated factors were different in different areas and few study on HFMD forecast models was conducted. Here, we analyzed epidemiological characteristics of HFMD in Yiwu City, Zhejiang Province and constructed three forecast models. Overall, a total of 32554 HFMD cases were reported and 12 cases deceased in Yiwu City, Zhejiang Province. The incidence of HFMD peaked every other year and the curve of HFMD incidence had an approximately W-shape. The majority of HFMD cases were children and 95.76% cases aged ≤5 years old from 2008 to 2016. Furthermore, we constructed and compared three forecast models using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, negative binomial regression model (NBM), and quasi-Poisson generalized additive model (GAM). All the three models had high agreements between predicted values and observed values, while GAM fitted best. The exposure-response curve of monthly mean temperature and HFMD was approximately V-shaped. Our study explored epidemiological characteristics of HFMD in Yiwu City and provided accurate methods for early warning which would be great importance for the control and prevention of HFMD. Nature Publishing Group UK 2019-10-30 /pmc/articles/PMC6821763/ /pubmed/31666565 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-52044-5 Text en © The Author(s) 2019 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
spellingShingle | Article Fu, Tao Chen, Ting Dong, Zhen-Bin Luo, Shu-Ying Miao, Ziping Song, Xiu-Ping Huang, Ru-Ting Sun, Ji-Min Development and comparison of forecast models of hand-foot-mouth disease with meteorological factors |
title | Development and comparison of forecast models of hand-foot-mouth disease with meteorological factors |
title_full | Development and comparison of forecast models of hand-foot-mouth disease with meteorological factors |
title_fullStr | Development and comparison of forecast models of hand-foot-mouth disease with meteorological factors |
title_full_unstemmed | Development and comparison of forecast models of hand-foot-mouth disease with meteorological factors |
title_short | Development and comparison of forecast models of hand-foot-mouth disease with meteorological factors |
title_sort | development and comparison of forecast models of hand-foot-mouth disease with meteorological factors |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6821763/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31666565 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-52044-5 |
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