Road traffic safety: An analysis of the cross-effects of economic, road and population factors

PURPOSE: Through the study of economic, traffic and population data related to road traffic accidents from 2004 to 2016, this paper analyzed the impact of various factors on road traffic casualties in China, and provided theoretical basis and suggestions for the road traffic safety management in China. METHODS: Based on three aspects (economy, road, population) with five factors (gross domestic product (GDP), traffic investment, new vehicle ownership, new road mileage and newly increased population), this paper collected the relevant data of road traffic accidents in 31 provinces and cities in China, from 2004 to 2016. A panel model was established to carry out empirical analysis. RESULTS: All factors have a significant impact on the number of road traffic accident casualties. When other factors remain unchanged, the number of road traffic casualties decreased by an average of 0.19 for every 100 million CNY increased in GDP. For every 100 million CNY increased in traffic investment, the number of road traffic casualties is reduced by an average of 13.93, indicating that economic development can improve road traffic safety to a certain extent. On the contrary, the growth in road mileage, new motor vehicles and population has increased the number of road traffic casualties. For every 10, 000 km of new road mileage, the number of traffic accident casualties has increased by 284.04. For every 10,000 newborns, the number of road traffic casualties increased by 7.33; as the number of new motor vehicles increases by 10,000, the number of road traffic casualties increased by an average of 21.77. CONCLUSION: The increase of GDP and traffic investment can significantly reduce the number of road traffic casualties in China, which shows that economic development is essential to improve road traffic safety. The numbers of new road mileage, newly increased population and the new motor vehicles are positively correlated with the number of traffic accident casualties in traffic accidents, which reflects the existing problems in road design, distribution of road resources, and traffic management in China. Therefore, it is necessary to improve the economic and road related aspects to improve road traffic safety.