Risk stratification for low extremity amputation in critical limb ischemia patients who have undergone endovascular revascularization: A survival tree analysis

Patients with peripheral artery disease (PAD) are a heterogeneous population and differ in risk of mortality and low extremity amputation (LEA), which complicates clinical decision-making. This study aimed to develop a simple risk scale using decision tree methodology to guide physicians in managing critical limb ischemia (CLI) patients who will benefit from endovascular therapy (EVT). A total of 736 patients with CLI, Rutherford classification (RC) stage ≥4, and prior successful EVT were included. Variables significantly associated with LEA by univariate analysis (P < .05) were selected and put into classification tree analysis using the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) model with a dependent variable, amputation, and depth of tree = 3. Four risk groups were generated according to the order of amputation rate. The amputation-free survival (AFS) times between groups were compared using the Kaplan–Meier curve with the log-rank test. Patients were classified as high risk for amputation (G4) (WBC counts ≥10,000/μl, and platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) ≥130.337); intermediate risk group 1 (G3) (WBC < 10,000/μl and RC stage before EVT > 5); intermediate risk group 2 (G2) (WBC count ≥ 10,000/μl, and PLR < 130.337) and low-risk group (G1) (WBC < 10,000/μl, RC before EVT ≤ 5). G2, G3, and G4 risk groups had shorter AFS time (range, 58.7 to 65.5 months) than the G1 risk group (100 months) (P < .05). Risk of LEA was significantly higher in the G4, G3, and G2 groups than in the G1 group (P ≤ .05). The G4 group had the highest risk of amputation (odds ratio = 6.84, P < .001). This simple risk scale model can help healthcare professionals more easily identify and appropriately treat patients with CLI who are at different levels of risk for LEA following endovascular revascularization.