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A NADE nomogram to predict the probability of 6-month unfavorable outcome in Chinese patients with ischemic stroke
BACKGROUND: Early prediction of unfavorable outcome after ischemic stroke is of great significance to the clinical and therapeutic management. A nomogram is a better visual tool than earlier models and prognostic scores to predict clinical outcomes, which incorporates different factors to develop a...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
BioMed Central
2019
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6839074/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31699038 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12883-019-1464-6 |
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author | Sun, Chao Li, Xiang Song, Baili Chen, Xiangliang Nyame, Linda Liu, Yukai Tang, Dan Ibrahim, Mako Zhao, Zheng Liu, Chao Yan, Miao Pan, Xiding Yang, Jie Zhou, Junshan Zou, Jianjun |
author_facet | Sun, Chao Li, Xiang Song, Baili Chen, Xiangliang Nyame, Linda Liu, Yukai Tang, Dan Ibrahim, Mako Zhao, Zheng Liu, Chao Yan, Miao Pan, Xiding Yang, Jie Zhou, Junshan Zou, Jianjun |
author_sort | Sun, Chao |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: Early prediction of unfavorable outcome after ischemic stroke is of great significance to the clinical and therapeutic management. A nomogram is a better visual tool than earlier models and prognostic scores to predict clinical outcomes, which incorporates different factors to develop a graphic continuous scoring system and calculates accurately the risk probability of poor outcome entirely based on individual characteristics. However, to date, no nomogram models have been found to predict the probability of 6-month poor outcome after ischemic stroke. We aimed to develop and validate a nomogram for individualized prediction of the probability of 6-month unfavorable outcome in Chinese patients with ischemic stroke. METHODS: Based on the retrospective stroke registry, a single-center study which included 499 patients from May, 2013 to May, 2018 was conducted in Nanjing First Hospital (China) for ischemic stroke within 12 h of symptoms onset. The main outcome measure was 6-month unfavorable outcome (mRS > 2). To generate the nomogram, NIHSS score on admission, Age, previous Diabetes mellitus and crEatinine (NADE) were integrated into the model. We assessed the discriminative performance by using the area under the curve (AUC) of receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) and calibration of risk prediction model by using the Hosmer–Lemeshow test. RESULTS: A visual NADE nomogram was constructed that NIHSS score on admission (OR: 1.190, 95%CI: 1.125–1.258), age (OR: 1.068, 95%CI: 1.045–1.090), previous diabetes mellitus (OR: 1.995, 95%CI: 1.236–3.221) and creatinine (OR: 1.010, 95%CI: 1.002–1.018) were found to be significant predictors of 6-month unfavorable outcome after acute ischemic stroke in Chinese patients. The AUC–ROC of nomogram was 0.791. Calibration was good (p = 0.4982 for the Hosmer–Lemeshow test). CONCLUSION: The NADE is the first nomogram developed and validated in Chinese ischemic stroke patients to provide an individual, visual and precise prediction of the risk probability of 6-month unfavorable outcome. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-6839074 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2019 |
publisher | BioMed Central |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-68390742019-11-12 A NADE nomogram to predict the probability of 6-month unfavorable outcome in Chinese patients with ischemic stroke Sun, Chao Li, Xiang Song, Baili Chen, Xiangliang Nyame, Linda Liu, Yukai Tang, Dan Ibrahim, Mako Zhao, Zheng Liu, Chao Yan, Miao Pan, Xiding Yang, Jie Zhou, Junshan Zou, Jianjun BMC Neurol Research Article BACKGROUND: Early prediction of unfavorable outcome after ischemic stroke is of great significance to the clinical and therapeutic management. A nomogram is a better visual tool than earlier models and prognostic scores to predict clinical outcomes, which incorporates different factors to develop a graphic continuous scoring system and calculates accurately the risk probability of poor outcome entirely based on individual characteristics. However, to date, no nomogram models have been found to predict the probability of 6-month poor outcome after ischemic stroke. We aimed to develop and validate a nomogram for individualized prediction of the probability of 6-month unfavorable outcome in Chinese patients with ischemic stroke. METHODS: Based on the retrospective stroke registry, a single-center study which included 499 patients from May, 2013 to May, 2018 was conducted in Nanjing First Hospital (China) for ischemic stroke within 12 h of symptoms onset. The main outcome measure was 6-month unfavorable outcome (mRS > 2). To generate the nomogram, NIHSS score on admission, Age, previous Diabetes mellitus and crEatinine (NADE) were integrated into the model. We assessed the discriminative performance by using the area under the curve (AUC) of receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) and calibration of risk prediction model by using the Hosmer–Lemeshow test. RESULTS: A visual NADE nomogram was constructed that NIHSS score on admission (OR: 1.190, 95%CI: 1.125–1.258), age (OR: 1.068, 95%CI: 1.045–1.090), previous diabetes mellitus (OR: 1.995, 95%CI: 1.236–3.221) and creatinine (OR: 1.010, 95%CI: 1.002–1.018) were found to be significant predictors of 6-month unfavorable outcome after acute ischemic stroke in Chinese patients. The AUC–ROC of nomogram was 0.791. Calibration was good (p = 0.4982 for the Hosmer–Lemeshow test). CONCLUSION: The NADE is the first nomogram developed and validated in Chinese ischemic stroke patients to provide an individual, visual and precise prediction of the risk probability of 6-month unfavorable outcome. BioMed Central 2019-11-07 /pmc/articles/PMC6839074/ /pubmed/31699038 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12883-019-1464-6 Text en © The Author(s). 2019 Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Sun, Chao Li, Xiang Song, Baili Chen, Xiangliang Nyame, Linda Liu, Yukai Tang, Dan Ibrahim, Mako Zhao, Zheng Liu, Chao Yan, Miao Pan, Xiding Yang, Jie Zhou, Junshan Zou, Jianjun A NADE nomogram to predict the probability of 6-month unfavorable outcome in Chinese patients with ischemic stroke |
title | A NADE nomogram to predict the probability of 6-month unfavorable outcome in Chinese patients with ischemic stroke |
title_full | A NADE nomogram to predict the probability of 6-month unfavorable outcome in Chinese patients with ischemic stroke |
title_fullStr | A NADE nomogram to predict the probability of 6-month unfavorable outcome in Chinese patients with ischemic stroke |
title_full_unstemmed | A NADE nomogram to predict the probability of 6-month unfavorable outcome in Chinese patients with ischemic stroke |
title_short | A NADE nomogram to predict the probability of 6-month unfavorable outcome in Chinese patients with ischemic stroke |
title_sort | nade nomogram to predict the probability of 6-month unfavorable outcome in chinese patients with ischemic stroke |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6839074/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31699038 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12883-019-1464-6 |
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