Cargando…

A NADE nomogram to predict the probability of 6-month unfavorable outcome in Chinese patients with ischemic stroke

BACKGROUND: Early prediction of unfavorable outcome after ischemic stroke is of great significance to the clinical and therapeutic management. A nomogram is a better visual tool than earlier models and prognostic scores to predict clinical outcomes, which incorporates different factors to develop a...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Sun, Chao, Li, Xiang, Song, Baili, Chen, Xiangliang, Nyame, Linda, Liu, Yukai, Tang, Dan, Ibrahim, Mako, Zhao, Zheng, Liu, Chao, Yan, Miao, Pan, Xiding, Yang, Jie, Zhou, Junshan, Zou, Jianjun
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: BioMed Central 2019
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6839074/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31699038
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12883-019-1464-6
_version_ 1783467336066400256
author Sun, Chao
Li, Xiang
Song, Baili
Chen, Xiangliang
Nyame, Linda
Liu, Yukai
Tang, Dan
Ibrahim, Mako
Zhao, Zheng
Liu, Chao
Yan, Miao
Pan, Xiding
Yang, Jie
Zhou, Junshan
Zou, Jianjun
author_facet Sun, Chao
Li, Xiang
Song, Baili
Chen, Xiangliang
Nyame, Linda
Liu, Yukai
Tang, Dan
Ibrahim, Mako
Zhao, Zheng
Liu, Chao
Yan, Miao
Pan, Xiding
Yang, Jie
Zhou, Junshan
Zou, Jianjun
author_sort Sun, Chao
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Early prediction of unfavorable outcome after ischemic stroke is of great significance to the clinical and therapeutic management. A nomogram is a better visual tool than earlier models and prognostic scores to predict clinical outcomes, which incorporates different factors to develop a graphic continuous scoring system and calculates accurately the risk probability of poor outcome entirely based on individual characteristics. However, to date, no nomogram models have been found to predict the probability of 6-month poor outcome after ischemic stroke. We aimed to develop and validate a nomogram for individualized prediction of the probability of 6-month unfavorable outcome in Chinese patients with ischemic stroke. METHODS: Based on the retrospective stroke registry, a single-center study which included 499 patients from May, 2013 to May, 2018 was conducted in Nanjing First Hospital (China) for ischemic stroke within 12 h of symptoms onset. The main outcome measure was 6-month unfavorable outcome (mRS > 2). To generate the nomogram, NIHSS score on admission, Age, previous Diabetes mellitus and crEatinine (NADE) were integrated into the model. We assessed the discriminative performance by using the area under the curve (AUC) of receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) and calibration of risk prediction model by using the Hosmer–Lemeshow test. RESULTS: A visual NADE nomogram was constructed that NIHSS score on admission (OR: 1.190, 95%CI: 1.125–1.258), age (OR: 1.068, 95%CI: 1.045–1.090), previous diabetes mellitus (OR: 1.995, 95%CI: 1.236–3.221) and creatinine (OR: 1.010, 95%CI: 1.002–1.018) were found to be significant predictors of 6-month unfavorable outcome after acute ischemic stroke in Chinese patients. The AUC–ROC of nomogram was 0.791. Calibration was good (p = 0.4982 for the Hosmer–Lemeshow test). CONCLUSION: The NADE is the first nomogram developed and validated in Chinese ischemic stroke patients to provide an individual, visual and precise prediction of the risk probability of 6-month unfavorable outcome.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-6839074
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2019
publisher BioMed Central
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-68390742019-11-12 A NADE nomogram to predict the probability of 6-month unfavorable outcome in Chinese patients with ischemic stroke Sun, Chao Li, Xiang Song, Baili Chen, Xiangliang Nyame, Linda Liu, Yukai Tang, Dan Ibrahim, Mako Zhao, Zheng Liu, Chao Yan, Miao Pan, Xiding Yang, Jie Zhou, Junshan Zou, Jianjun BMC Neurol Research Article BACKGROUND: Early prediction of unfavorable outcome after ischemic stroke is of great significance to the clinical and therapeutic management. A nomogram is a better visual tool than earlier models and prognostic scores to predict clinical outcomes, which incorporates different factors to develop a graphic continuous scoring system and calculates accurately the risk probability of poor outcome entirely based on individual characteristics. However, to date, no nomogram models have been found to predict the probability of 6-month poor outcome after ischemic stroke. We aimed to develop and validate a nomogram for individualized prediction of the probability of 6-month unfavorable outcome in Chinese patients with ischemic stroke. METHODS: Based on the retrospective stroke registry, a single-center study which included 499 patients from May, 2013 to May, 2018 was conducted in Nanjing First Hospital (China) for ischemic stroke within 12 h of symptoms onset. The main outcome measure was 6-month unfavorable outcome (mRS > 2). To generate the nomogram, NIHSS score on admission, Age, previous Diabetes mellitus and crEatinine (NADE) were integrated into the model. We assessed the discriminative performance by using the area under the curve (AUC) of receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) and calibration of risk prediction model by using the Hosmer–Lemeshow test. RESULTS: A visual NADE nomogram was constructed that NIHSS score on admission (OR: 1.190, 95%CI: 1.125–1.258), age (OR: 1.068, 95%CI: 1.045–1.090), previous diabetes mellitus (OR: 1.995, 95%CI: 1.236–3.221) and creatinine (OR: 1.010, 95%CI: 1.002–1.018) were found to be significant predictors of 6-month unfavorable outcome after acute ischemic stroke in Chinese patients. The AUC–ROC of nomogram was 0.791. Calibration was good (p = 0.4982 for the Hosmer–Lemeshow test). CONCLUSION: The NADE is the first nomogram developed and validated in Chinese ischemic stroke patients to provide an individual, visual and precise prediction of the risk probability of 6-month unfavorable outcome. BioMed Central 2019-11-07 /pmc/articles/PMC6839074/ /pubmed/31699038 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12883-019-1464-6 Text en © The Author(s). 2019 Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.
spellingShingle Research Article
Sun, Chao
Li, Xiang
Song, Baili
Chen, Xiangliang
Nyame, Linda
Liu, Yukai
Tang, Dan
Ibrahim, Mako
Zhao, Zheng
Liu, Chao
Yan, Miao
Pan, Xiding
Yang, Jie
Zhou, Junshan
Zou, Jianjun
A NADE nomogram to predict the probability of 6-month unfavorable outcome in Chinese patients with ischemic stroke
title A NADE nomogram to predict the probability of 6-month unfavorable outcome in Chinese patients with ischemic stroke
title_full A NADE nomogram to predict the probability of 6-month unfavorable outcome in Chinese patients with ischemic stroke
title_fullStr A NADE nomogram to predict the probability of 6-month unfavorable outcome in Chinese patients with ischemic stroke
title_full_unstemmed A NADE nomogram to predict the probability of 6-month unfavorable outcome in Chinese patients with ischemic stroke
title_short A NADE nomogram to predict the probability of 6-month unfavorable outcome in Chinese patients with ischemic stroke
title_sort nade nomogram to predict the probability of 6-month unfavorable outcome in chinese patients with ischemic stroke
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6839074/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31699038
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12883-019-1464-6
work_keys_str_mv AT sunchao anadenomogramtopredicttheprobabilityof6monthunfavorableoutcomeinchinesepatientswithischemicstroke
AT lixiang anadenomogramtopredicttheprobabilityof6monthunfavorableoutcomeinchinesepatientswithischemicstroke
AT songbaili anadenomogramtopredicttheprobabilityof6monthunfavorableoutcomeinchinesepatientswithischemicstroke
AT chenxiangliang anadenomogramtopredicttheprobabilityof6monthunfavorableoutcomeinchinesepatientswithischemicstroke
AT nyamelinda anadenomogramtopredicttheprobabilityof6monthunfavorableoutcomeinchinesepatientswithischemicstroke
AT liuyukai anadenomogramtopredicttheprobabilityof6monthunfavorableoutcomeinchinesepatientswithischemicstroke
AT tangdan anadenomogramtopredicttheprobabilityof6monthunfavorableoutcomeinchinesepatientswithischemicstroke
AT ibrahimmako anadenomogramtopredicttheprobabilityof6monthunfavorableoutcomeinchinesepatientswithischemicstroke
AT zhaozheng anadenomogramtopredicttheprobabilityof6monthunfavorableoutcomeinchinesepatientswithischemicstroke
AT liuchao anadenomogramtopredicttheprobabilityof6monthunfavorableoutcomeinchinesepatientswithischemicstroke
AT yanmiao anadenomogramtopredicttheprobabilityof6monthunfavorableoutcomeinchinesepatientswithischemicstroke
AT panxiding anadenomogramtopredicttheprobabilityof6monthunfavorableoutcomeinchinesepatientswithischemicstroke
AT yangjie anadenomogramtopredicttheprobabilityof6monthunfavorableoutcomeinchinesepatientswithischemicstroke
AT zhoujunshan anadenomogramtopredicttheprobabilityof6monthunfavorableoutcomeinchinesepatientswithischemicstroke
AT zoujianjun anadenomogramtopredicttheprobabilityof6monthunfavorableoutcomeinchinesepatientswithischemicstroke
AT sunchao nadenomogramtopredicttheprobabilityof6monthunfavorableoutcomeinchinesepatientswithischemicstroke
AT lixiang nadenomogramtopredicttheprobabilityof6monthunfavorableoutcomeinchinesepatientswithischemicstroke
AT songbaili nadenomogramtopredicttheprobabilityof6monthunfavorableoutcomeinchinesepatientswithischemicstroke
AT chenxiangliang nadenomogramtopredicttheprobabilityof6monthunfavorableoutcomeinchinesepatientswithischemicstroke
AT nyamelinda nadenomogramtopredicttheprobabilityof6monthunfavorableoutcomeinchinesepatientswithischemicstroke
AT liuyukai nadenomogramtopredicttheprobabilityof6monthunfavorableoutcomeinchinesepatientswithischemicstroke
AT tangdan nadenomogramtopredicttheprobabilityof6monthunfavorableoutcomeinchinesepatientswithischemicstroke
AT ibrahimmako nadenomogramtopredicttheprobabilityof6monthunfavorableoutcomeinchinesepatientswithischemicstroke
AT zhaozheng nadenomogramtopredicttheprobabilityof6monthunfavorableoutcomeinchinesepatientswithischemicstroke
AT liuchao nadenomogramtopredicttheprobabilityof6monthunfavorableoutcomeinchinesepatientswithischemicstroke
AT yanmiao nadenomogramtopredicttheprobabilityof6monthunfavorableoutcomeinchinesepatientswithischemicstroke
AT panxiding nadenomogramtopredicttheprobabilityof6monthunfavorableoutcomeinchinesepatientswithischemicstroke
AT yangjie nadenomogramtopredicttheprobabilityof6monthunfavorableoutcomeinchinesepatientswithischemicstroke
AT zhoujunshan nadenomogramtopredicttheprobabilityof6monthunfavorableoutcomeinchinesepatientswithischemicstroke
AT zoujianjun nadenomogramtopredicttheprobabilityof6monthunfavorableoutcomeinchinesepatientswithischemicstroke