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Risk factors and predicted distribution of visceral leishmaniasis in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China, 2005–2015

BACKGROUND: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a neglected disease that is spread to humans by the bites of infected female phlebotomine sand flies. Although this vector-borne disease has been eliminated in most parts of China, it still poses a significant public health burden in the Xinjiang Uygur Auto...

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Autores principales: Ding, Fangyu, Wang, Qian, Fu, Jingying, Chen, Shuai, Hao, Mengmeng, Ma, Tian, Zheng, Canjun, Jiang, Dong
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: BioMed Central 2019
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6839266/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31703720
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13071-019-3778-z
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author Ding, Fangyu
Wang, Qian
Fu, Jingying
Chen, Shuai
Hao, Mengmeng
Ma, Tian
Zheng, Canjun
Jiang, Dong
author_facet Ding, Fangyu
Wang, Qian
Fu, Jingying
Chen, Shuai
Hao, Mengmeng
Ma, Tian
Zheng, Canjun
Jiang, Dong
author_sort Ding, Fangyu
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a neglected disease that is spread to humans by the bites of infected female phlebotomine sand flies. Although this vector-borne disease has been eliminated in most parts of China, it still poses a significant public health burden in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. Understanding of the spatial epidemiology of the disease remains vague in the local community. In the present study, we investigated the spatiotemporal distribution of VL in the region in order to assess the potential threat of the disease. METHODS: Based on comprehensive infection records, the spatiotemporal patterns of new cases of VL in the region between 2005 and 2015 were analysed. By combining maps of environmental and socioeconomic correlates, the boosted regression tree (BRT) model was adopted to identify the environmental niche of VL. RESULTS: The fitted BRT models were used to map potential infection risk zones of VL in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, revealing that the predicted high infection risk zones were mainly concentrated in central and northern Kashgar Prefecture, south of Atushi City bordering Kashgar Prefecture and regions of the northern Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture. The final result revealed that approximately 16.64 million people inhabited the predicted potential infection risk areas in the region. CONCLUSIONS: Our results provide a better understanding of the potential endemic foci of VL in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region with a 1 km spatial resolution, thereby enhancing our capacity to target the potential risk areas, to develop disease control strategies and to allocate medical supplies.
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spelling pubmed-68392662019-11-14 Risk factors and predicted distribution of visceral leishmaniasis in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China, 2005–2015 Ding, Fangyu Wang, Qian Fu, Jingying Chen, Shuai Hao, Mengmeng Ma, Tian Zheng, Canjun Jiang, Dong Parasit Vectors Research BACKGROUND: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a neglected disease that is spread to humans by the bites of infected female phlebotomine sand flies. Although this vector-borne disease has been eliminated in most parts of China, it still poses a significant public health burden in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. Understanding of the spatial epidemiology of the disease remains vague in the local community. In the present study, we investigated the spatiotemporal distribution of VL in the region in order to assess the potential threat of the disease. METHODS: Based on comprehensive infection records, the spatiotemporal patterns of new cases of VL in the region between 2005 and 2015 were analysed. By combining maps of environmental and socioeconomic correlates, the boosted regression tree (BRT) model was adopted to identify the environmental niche of VL. RESULTS: The fitted BRT models were used to map potential infection risk zones of VL in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, revealing that the predicted high infection risk zones were mainly concentrated in central and northern Kashgar Prefecture, south of Atushi City bordering Kashgar Prefecture and regions of the northern Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture. The final result revealed that approximately 16.64 million people inhabited the predicted potential infection risk areas in the region. CONCLUSIONS: Our results provide a better understanding of the potential endemic foci of VL in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region with a 1 km spatial resolution, thereby enhancing our capacity to target the potential risk areas, to develop disease control strategies and to allocate medical supplies. BioMed Central 2019-11-08 /pmc/articles/PMC6839266/ /pubmed/31703720 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13071-019-3778-z Text en © The Author(s) 2019 Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.
spellingShingle Research
Ding, Fangyu
Wang, Qian
Fu, Jingying
Chen, Shuai
Hao, Mengmeng
Ma, Tian
Zheng, Canjun
Jiang, Dong
Risk factors and predicted distribution of visceral leishmaniasis in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China, 2005–2015
title Risk factors and predicted distribution of visceral leishmaniasis in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China, 2005–2015
title_full Risk factors and predicted distribution of visceral leishmaniasis in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China, 2005–2015
title_fullStr Risk factors and predicted distribution of visceral leishmaniasis in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China, 2005–2015
title_full_unstemmed Risk factors and predicted distribution of visceral leishmaniasis in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China, 2005–2015
title_short Risk factors and predicted distribution of visceral leishmaniasis in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China, 2005–2015
title_sort risk factors and predicted distribution of visceral leishmaniasis in the xinjiang uygur autonomous region, china, 2005–2015
topic Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6839266/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31703720
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13071-019-3778-z
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