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THE INFLUENCE OF THE UNIVERSAL TWO-CHILD POLICY ON CHINA’S FUTURE AGING AND POPULATION

China’s aging situation is becoming more and more prominent, and both the people and the government are facing unprecedented pressure of providing for the aged. For this reason, the Chinese government began implementing a new family planning policy for couples to have two children since 2016 (referr...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Jia, Can, li, Handong
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Oxford University Press 2019
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6845911/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/geroni/igz038.2596
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author Jia, Can
li, Handong
author_facet Jia, Can
li, Handong
author_sort Jia, Can
collection PubMed
description China’s aging situation is becoming more and more prominent, and both the people and the government are facing unprecedented pressure of providing for the aged. For this reason, the Chinese government began implementing a new family planning policy for couples to have two children since 2016 (referred to as “universal two-child policy”). In order to explore the impact of the newly released policy, our research is based on the sixth census of China. And first, we use the cohort-component method and a Leslie matrix to construct the population prediction model. Considering some certain unique factors in China, such as the significant urban-rural dual structure and the household registration system and so on, we divide the total fertility rate into urban and rural areas which fully reflects the characteristics of China’s family planning policy. Then we predict and analyze the number and structure of China population between 2011 and 2050 based on the three scenarios of high, medium and low. And the results show that the Chinese population will present an inverted pyramid structure, and the population structure will continue to deteriorate. Besides, we adapt three indicators to analyze the aging trend in China, namely, the old-age coefficient, the population aging index, and the social dependency ratio. And the three indicators of China will continue to grow under the universal two-child policy with different changing rate, which means, the newly released policy will not change China’s aging population growth trend and the severity of China’s aging.
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spelling pubmed-68459112019-11-18 THE INFLUENCE OF THE UNIVERSAL TWO-CHILD POLICY ON CHINA’S FUTURE AGING AND POPULATION Jia, Can li, Handong Innov Aging Session 3350 (Poster) China’s aging situation is becoming more and more prominent, and both the people and the government are facing unprecedented pressure of providing for the aged. For this reason, the Chinese government began implementing a new family planning policy for couples to have two children since 2016 (referred to as “universal two-child policy”). In order to explore the impact of the newly released policy, our research is based on the sixth census of China. And first, we use the cohort-component method and a Leslie matrix to construct the population prediction model. Considering some certain unique factors in China, such as the significant urban-rural dual structure and the household registration system and so on, we divide the total fertility rate into urban and rural areas which fully reflects the characteristics of China’s family planning policy. Then we predict and analyze the number and structure of China population between 2011 and 2050 based on the three scenarios of high, medium and low. And the results show that the Chinese population will present an inverted pyramid structure, and the population structure will continue to deteriorate. Besides, we adapt three indicators to analyze the aging trend in China, namely, the old-age coefficient, the population aging index, and the social dependency ratio. And the three indicators of China will continue to grow under the universal two-child policy with different changing rate, which means, the newly released policy will not change China’s aging population growth trend and the severity of China’s aging. Oxford University Press 2019-11-08 /pmc/articles/PMC6845911/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/geroni/igz038.2596 Text en © The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Session 3350 (Poster)
Jia, Can
li, Handong
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UNIVERSAL TWO-CHILD POLICY ON CHINA’S FUTURE AGING AND POPULATION
title THE INFLUENCE OF THE UNIVERSAL TWO-CHILD POLICY ON CHINA’S FUTURE AGING AND POPULATION
title_full THE INFLUENCE OF THE UNIVERSAL TWO-CHILD POLICY ON CHINA’S FUTURE AGING AND POPULATION
title_fullStr THE INFLUENCE OF THE UNIVERSAL TWO-CHILD POLICY ON CHINA’S FUTURE AGING AND POPULATION
title_full_unstemmed THE INFLUENCE OF THE UNIVERSAL TWO-CHILD POLICY ON CHINA’S FUTURE AGING AND POPULATION
title_short THE INFLUENCE OF THE UNIVERSAL TWO-CHILD POLICY ON CHINA’S FUTURE AGING AND POPULATION
title_sort influence of the universal two-child policy on china’s future aging and population
topic Session 3350 (Poster)
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6845911/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/geroni/igz038.2596
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