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Effects of 21st‐century climate, land use, and disturbances on ecosystem carbon balance in California
Terrestrial ecosystems are an important sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2)), sequestering ~30% of annual anthropogenic emissions and slowing the rise of atmospheric CO(2). However, the future direction and magnitude of the land sink is highly uncertain. We examined how historical and project...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
John Wiley and Sons Inc.
2019
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6851753/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31066121 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14677 |
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author | Sleeter, Benjamin M. Marvin, David C. Cameron, D. Richard Selmants, Paul C. Westerling, A.LeRoy Kreitler, Jason Daniel, Colin J. Liu, Jinxun Wilson, Tamara S. |
author_facet | Sleeter, Benjamin M. Marvin, David C. Cameron, D. Richard Selmants, Paul C. Westerling, A.LeRoy Kreitler, Jason Daniel, Colin J. Liu, Jinxun Wilson, Tamara S. |
author_sort | Sleeter, Benjamin M. |
collection | PubMed |
description | Terrestrial ecosystems are an important sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2)), sequestering ~30% of annual anthropogenic emissions and slowing the rise of atmospheric CO(2). However, the future direction and magnitude of the land sink is highly uncertain. We examined how historical and projected changes in climate, land use, and ecosystem disturbances affect the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in California over the period 2001–2100. We modeled 32 unique scenarios, spanning 4 land use and 2 radiative forcing scenarios as simulated by four global climate models. Between 2001 and 2015, carbon storage in California's terrestrial ecosystems declined by −188.4 Tg C, with a mean annual flux ranging from a source of −89.8 Tg C/year to a sink of 60.1 Tg C/year. The large variability in the magnitude of the state's carbon source/sink was primarily attributable to interannual variability in weather and climate, which affected the rate of carbon uptake in vegetation and the rate of ecosystem respiration. Under nearly all future scenarios, carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems was projected to decline, with an average loss of −9.4% (−432.3 Tg C) by the year 2100 from current stocks. However, uncertainty in the magnitude of carbon loss was high, with individual scenario projections ranging from −916.2 to 121.2 Tg C and was largely driven by differences in future climate conditions projected by climate models. Moving from a high to a low radiative forcing scenario reduced net ecosystem carbon loss by 21% and when combined with reductions in land‐use change (i.e., moving from a high to a low land‐use scenario), net carbon losses were reduced by 55% on average. However, reconciling large uncertainties associated with the effect of increasing atmospheric CO(2) is needed to better constrain models used to establish baseline conditions from which ecosystem‐based climate mitigation strategies can be evaluated. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-6851753 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2019 |
publisher | John Wiley and Sons Inc. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-68517532019-11-18 Effects of 21st‐century climate, land use, and disturbances on ecosystem carbon balance in California Sleeter, Benjamin M. Marvin, David C. Cameron, D. Richard Selmants, Paul C. Westerling, A.LeRoy Kreitler, Jason Daniel, Colin J. Liu, Jinxun Wilson, Tamara S. Glob Chang Biol Primary Research Articles Terrestrial ecosystems are an important sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2)), sequestering ~30% of annual anthropogenic emissions and slowing the rise of atmospheric CO(2). However, the future direction and magnitude of the land sink is highly uncertain. We examined how historical and projected changes in climate, land use, and ecosystem disturbances affect the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in California over the period 2001–2100. We modeled 32 unique scenarios, spanning 4 land use and 2 radiative forcing scenarios as simulated by four global climate models. Between 2001 and 2015, carbon storage in California's terrestrial ecosystems declined by −188.4 Tg C, with a mean annual flux ranging from a source of −89.8 Tg C/year to a sink of 60.1 Tg C/year. The large variability in the magnitude of the state's carbon source/sink was primarily attributable to interannual variability in weather and climate, which affected the rate of carbon uptake in vegetation and the rate of ecosystem respiration. Under nearly all future scenarios, carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems was projected to decline, with an average loss of −9.4% (−432.3 Tg C) by the year 2100 from current stocks. However, uncertainty in the magnitude of carbon loss was high, with individual scenario projections ranging from −916.2 to 121.2 Tg C and was largely driven by differences in future climate conditions projected by climate models. Moving from a high to a low radiative forcing scenario reduced net ecosystem carbon loss by 21% and when combined with reductions in land‐use change (i.e., moving from a high to a low land‐use scenario), net carbon losses were reduced by 55% on average. However, reconciling large uncertainties associated with the effect of increasing atmospheric CO(2) is needed to better constrain models used to establish baseline conditions from which ecosystem‐based climate mitigation strategies can be evaluated. John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2019-06-24 2019-10 /pmc/articles/PMC6851753/ /pubmed/31066121 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14677 Text en Published 2019. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
spellingShingle | Primary Research Articles Sleeter, Benjamin M. Marvin, David C. Cameron, D. Richard Selmants, Paul C. Westerling, A.LeRoy Kreitler, Jason Daniel, Colin J. Liu, Jinxun Wilson, Tamara S. Effects of 21st‐century climate, land use, and disturbances on ecosystem carbon balance in California |
title | Effects of 21st‐century climate, land use, and disturbances on ecosystem carbon balance in California |
title_full | Effects of 21st‐century climate, land use, and disturbances on ecosystem carbon balance in California |
title_fullStr | Effects of 21st‐century climate, land use, and disturbances on ecosystem carbon balance in California |
title_full_unstemmed | Effects of 21st‐century climate, land use, and disturbances on ecosystem carbon balance in California |
title_short | Effects of 21st‐century climate, land use, and disturbances on ecosystem carbon balance in California |
title_sort | effects of 21st‐century climate, land use, and disturbances on ecosystem carbon balance in california |
topic | Primary Research Articles |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6851753/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31066121 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14677 |
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