Physiotherapist prediction of extubation outcome in the adult intensive care unit

OBJECTIVE: Most patients requiring intubation and mechanical ventilation are extubated successfully at the first attempt; however, a minority experience extubation failure, which is associated with increased risk of ventilator‐associated pneumonia, prolonged intensive care unit (ICU) length of stay and mortality. Physiotherapists have expertise to assess cough strength, work of breathing, respiratory muscle strength, and respiratory secretion load, which are important factors in the outcome of extubation. Accurate prediction of extubation outcome could help to inform management plans pre‐extubation and postextubation. The primary objective of this service evaluation was to report the accuracy of physiotherapists' prediction of extubation outcome in the adult ICU. METHODS: A single‐centre case note review was undertaken. All subjects who received a physiotherapy assessment of extubation suitability prior to extubation between January and March 2016 in the adult ICU of a large teaching hospital in the United Kingdom were included. Assessment, by both specialist and nonspecialist physiotherapists—which included risk stratification of extubation failure as “high,” “moderate,” or “low”—was undertaken prior to extubation. Logistic regression analysis was performed to determine which pre‐extubation factors were predictive of extubation outcome. RESULTS: During the evaluation period, 68 subjects were extubated following a physiotherapy assessment. Physiotherapy risk stratification as “high risk” (OR 4; 95% confidence interval, CI, [1.312]; p=0.009) and “inappropriate” neurological status (OR 3.3; 95% CI [1.0410]; p=0.037) were the only pre‐extubation factors significantly associated with extubation failure. Assessment by specialist physiotherapists demonstrated greater sensitivity (100% vs. 22%) but lower specificity (68% vs. 95%) to detect extubation failure compared with the assessment performed by nonspecialist physiotherapists. CONCLUSION: Patients classified as “high risk” of extubation failure by a physiotherapist are significantly more likely to fail extubation. Specialist physiotherapists should be involved in the decision to extubate patients in the adult ICU.