Decreased risk of HIV‐associated TB during antiretroviral therapy expansion in rural Eswatini from 2009 to 2016: a cohort and population‐based analysis

OBJECTIVES: This paper assesses patient‐ and population‐level trends in TB notifications during rapid expansion of antiretroviral therapy in Eswatini which has an extremely high incidence of both TB and HIV. METHODS: Patient‐ and population‐level predictors and rates of HIV‐associated TB were examined in the Shiselweni region in Eswatini from 2009 to 2016. Annual population‐level denominators obtained from projected census data and prevalence estimates obtained from population‐based surveys were combined with individual‐level TB treatment data. Patient‐ and population‐level predictors of HIV‐associated TB were assessed with multivariate logistic and multivariate negative binomial regression models. RESULTS: Of 11 328 TB cases, 71.4% were HIV co‐infected and 51.8% were women. TB notifications decreased fivefold between 2009 and 2016, from 1341 to 269 cases per 100 000 person‐years. The decline was sixfold in PLHIV vs. threefold in the HIV‐negative population. Main patient‐level predictors of HIV‐associated TB were recurrent TB treatment (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.40, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.19–1.65), negative (aOR 1.31, 1.15–1.49) and missing (aOR 1.30, 1.11–1.53) bacteriological status and diagnosis at secondary healthcare level (aOR 1.18, 1.06–1.33). Compared with 2009, the probability of TB decreased for all years from 2011 (aOR 0.69, 0.58–0.83) to 2016 (aOR 0.54, 0.43–0.69). The most pronounced population‐level predictor of TB was HIV‐positive status (adjusted incidence risk ratio 19.47, 14.89–25.46). CONCLUSIONS: This high HIV‐TB prevalence setting experienced a rapid decline in TB notifications, most pronounced in PLHIV. Achievements in HIV‐TB programming were likely contributing factors.