Using a Single Daytime Performance Test to Identify Most Individuals at High-Risk for Performance Impairment during Extended Wake

We explored the predictive value of a neurobehavioral performance assessment under rested baseline conditions (evaluated at 8 hours awake following 8 hours of sleep) on neurobehavioral response to moderate sleep loss (evaluated at 20 hours awake two days later) in 151 healthy young participants (18–30 years). We defined each participant’s response-to-sleep-loss phenotype based on the number of attentional failures on a 10-min visual psychomotor vigilance task taken at 20 hours awake (resilient: less than 6 attentional failures, n = 26 participants; non-resilient: 6 or more attentional failures, n = 125 participants). We observed that 97% of rested participants with 2 or more attentional failures (n = 73 of 151) and 100% of rested participants with 3 or more attentional failures (n = 57 of 151) were non-resilient after moderate sleep loss. Our approach can accurately identify a significant proportion of individuals who are at high risk for neurobehavioral performance impairment from staying up late with a single neurobehavioral performance assessment conducted during rested conditions. Additional methods are needed to predict the future performance of individuals who are not identified as high risk during baseline.