Using the RISK-PCI Score in the Long-Term Prediction of Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events and Mortality after Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

BACKGROUND/AIM: The RISK-PCI is a simple score for the prediction of 30-day major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and mortality in patients treated with primary PCI (pPCI). The aim of the present study is to evaluate the prognostic performance of the RISK-PCI score in predicting MACE and mortality in the long-term follow-up of STEMI patients treated with pPCI. METHOD: The present study enrolled 2,096 STEMI patients treated with pPCI included in the RISK-PCI trial. Patients presenting with cardiogenic shock were excluded. The composite end-point MACE comprising cardiovascular mortality, nonfatal reinfarction and stroke. Patients were followed up at 6 years after enrollment. RESULTS: One-year and 6-year MACE occurred in 229 (10.9%) and 285 (13.6%) patients, respectively; and 1-year and 6-year mortality occurred in 128 (6.2%) and 151 (7.2%) patients, respectively. The RISK-PCI score was an independent predictor for 1-year MACE (HR 1.24, 95% CI 1, 18–1.31, p < 0.001), 6-year MACE (HR 1.22, 95% CI 1.16–1.28, p < 0.001), 1-year mortality (HR 1.21, 95% CI 1.13–1.29, p < 0.001), and 6-year mortality (HR 1.23, 95% CI 1.15–1.31, p < 0.001). The discrimination of the RISK-PCI score to predict 1-year and 6-year MACE and mortality was good: for 1-year MACE c-statistic 0.78, for 6-year MACE c-statistic 0.75, for 1-year mortality c-statistic 0.87, and for 6-year mortality c-statistic 0.83. The nonsignificant Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit estimates for 1-year MACE (p=0.619), 6-year MACE (p=0.319), 1-year mortality (p=0.258), and 6-year mortality (p=0.540) indicated a good calibration of the model. CONCLUSION: The RISK-PCI score demonstrates good characteristics in the assessment of the risk for the occurrence of MACE and mortality during long-term follow-up after pPCI.