The impact of tobacco control policies on smoking initiation in eleven European countries

We investigate the effect of tobacco control policies on smoking initiation in eleven European countries. Based on individual data about age of onset of smoking, we use hazard rate models to study smoking initiation. Thus, we are able to take into account observed and unobserved personal characteristics as well as the effect of the introduction of a variety of tobacco control policies including price and and non-price policies, i.e., bans on tobacco advertisements, smoke-free air regulation, health warnings on packages of cigarettes, and treatment programs to help smokers quit smoking. We find that higher tobacco prices have a negative effect on the initiation into smoking for males but not for females. We find no effect of non-price tobacco control policies on smoking initiation. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s10198-019-01090-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.