Capitalising on shared goals for family planning: a concordance assessment of two global initiatives using longitudinal statistical models

OBJECTIVE: Family planning is unique among health interventions in its breadth of health, development and economic benefits. The complexity of formulating effective strategies to promote women’s and girls’ access to family planning calls for closer coordination of resources and attention from all stakeholders. Our objective was to quantify the concordance of two global initiatives: Family Planning 2020’s adding 120 million modern contraceptive users by 2020 (proposed during The London Summit 2012 by Gates Foundation) and satisfying the 75% demand for modern contraceptives by 2030 (proposed by United States Agency for International Development). A demonstration of their concordance, or lack thereof, provides an understanding of the proposed quantitative goals and helps to formulate collective strategies. DESIGN AND SETTING: We applied fixed effects longitudinal models to assess the convergence of the two initiatives. The implications of success in one initiative on achieving the other are simulated to illustrate their shared goals. Publicly available data on contraceptive use, unmet need and met need from national surveys are used. Extensive model validations were conducted to check and confirm models’ predictive performance. RESULTS: Our results show that the 75% demand satisfied initiative will reach 82 million additional modern users by 2020 and 120 million by early 2023. Following FP2020’s proposed annual increase of modern contraceptive use, 9 of the 41 commitment-making countries will reach the 75% target by 2020; another 8 countries will do so by 2030. Extending FP2020’s proposed contraceptive growth to 2030 implies the achievement of the 75% target in less than half (17) of the 41 commitment-making countries. CONCLUSION: The results from the statistical exercise demonstrate that the two global initiatives move toward the same goal of promoting access to family planning and overall both are ambitious. Closer coordination between major stakeholders in international family planning may stimulate more efficient mobilisation and utilisation of global sources, which is urgently needed to accelerate the progress toward satisfying women’s need for family planning.