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Development and validation of a postoperative delirium prediction model for patients admitted to an intensive care unit in China: a prospective study
OBJECTIVES: We aimed to develop and validate a postoperative delirium (POD) prediction model for patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). DESIGN: A prospective study was conducted. SETTING: The study was conducted in the surgical, cardiovascular surgical and trauma surgical ICUs of an aff...
Autores principales: | , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
BMJ Publishing Group
2019
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6858207/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31722939 http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2019-030733 |
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author | Xing, Huanmin Zhou, Wendie Fan, Yuying Wen, Taoxue Wang, Xiaohui Chang, Guangming |
author_facet | Xing, Huanmin Zhou, Wendie Fan, Yuying Wen, Taoxue Wang, Xiaohui Chang, Guangming |
author_sort | Xing, Huanmin |
collection | PubMed |
description | OBJECTIVES: We aimed to develop and validate a postoperative delirium (POD) prediction model for patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). DESIGN: A prospective study was conducted. SETTING: The study was conducted in the surgical, cardiovascular surgical and trauma surgical ICUs of an affiliated hospital of a medical university in Heilongjiang Province, China. PARTICIPANTS: This study included 400 patients (≥18 years old) admitted to the ICU after surgery. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome measure was POD assessment during ICU stay. RESULTS: The model was developed using 300 consecutive ICU patients and was validated using 100 patients from the same ICUs. The model was based on five risk factors: Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of Mortality and morbidity; acid–base disturbance and history of coma, diabetes or hypertension. The model had an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.852 (95% CI 0.802 to 0.902), Youden index of 0.5789, sensitivity of 70.73% and specificity of 87.16%. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit was 5.203 (p=0.736). At a cutoff value of 24.5%, the sensitivity and specificity were 71% and 69%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The model, which used readily available data, exhibited high predictive value regarding risk of ICU-POD at admission. Use of this model may facilitate better implementation of preventive treatments and nursing measures. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-6858207 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2019 |
publisher | BMJ Publishing Group |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-68582072019-12-03 Development and validation of a postoperative delirium prediction model for patients admitted to an intensive care unit in China: a prospective study Xing, Huanmin Zhou, Wendie Fan, Yuying Wen, Taoxue Wang, Xiaohui Chang, Guangming BMJ Open Intensive Care OBJECTIVES: We aimed to develop and validate a postoperative delirium (POD) prediction model for patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). DESIGN: A prospective study was conducted. SETTING: The study was conducted in the surgical, cardiovascular surgical and trauma surgical ICUs of an affiliated hospital of a medical university in Heilongjiang Province, China. PARTICIPANTS: This study included 400 patients (≥18 years old) admitted to the ICU after surgery. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome measure was POD assessment during ICU stay. RESULTS: The model was developed using 300 consecutive ICU patients and was validated using 100 patients from the same ICUs. The model was based on five risk factors: Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of Mortality and morbidity; acid–base disturbance and history of coma, diabetes or hypertension. The model had an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.852 (95% CI 0.802 to 0.902), Youden index of 0.5789, sensitivity of 70.73% and specificity of 87.16%. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit was 5.203 (p=0.736). At a cutoff value of 24.5%, the sensitivity and specificity were 71% and 69%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The model, which used readily available data, exhibited high predictive value regarding risk of ICU-POD at admission. Use of this model may facilitate better implementation of preventive treatments and nursing measures. BMJ Publishing Group 2019-11-12 /pmc/articles/PMC6858207/ /pubmed/31722939 http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2019-030733 Text en © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ. This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited, appropriate credit is given, any changes made indicated, and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/. |
spellingShingle | Intensive Care Xing, Huanmin Zhou, Wendie Fan, Yuying Wen, Taoxue Wang, Xiaohui Chang, Guangming Development and validation of a postoperative delirium prediction model for patients admitted to an intensive care unit in China: a prospective study |
title | Development and validation of a postoperative delirium prediction model for patients admitted to an intensive care unit in China: a prospective study |
title_full | Development and validation of a postoperative delirium prediction model for patients admitted to an intensive care unit in China: a prospective study |
title_fullStr | Development and validation of a postoperative delirium prediction model for patients admitted to an intensive care unit in China: a prospective study |
title_full_unstemmed | Development and validation of a postoperative delirium prediction model for patients admitted to an intensive care unit in China: a prospective study |
title_short | Development and validation of a postoperative delirium prediction model for patients admitted to an intensive care unit in China: a prospective study |
title_sort | development and validation of a postoperative delirium prediction model for patients admitted to an intensive care unit in china: a prospective study |
topic | Intensive Care |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6858207/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31722939 http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2019-030733 |
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