Geospatial assessment of the voluntary medical male circumcision programme in Tanzania, 2011–2016

INTRODUCTION: Tanzania is one of the 14 priority countries in sub-Saharan Africa scaling up voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) for HIV prevention. In this study, we assessed the progress of VMMC by evaluating changes in the spatial structure of male circumcision (MC) prevalence and identifying age groups with low MC uptake. METHODS: We use data from two waves of the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) conducted in Tanzania in 2011–2012 and 2015–2016. MC incidence rate was estimated using a method developed to calculate incidence rates from two successive cross-sectional surveys. Continuous surface maps of MC prevalence were generated for both DHS waves and compared with identified areas with high MC prevalence changes and high density of uncircumcised males. RESULTS: National MC prevalence in Tanzania increased from 73.5% in 2011–2012 to 80.0% in 2015–2016. The estimated national MC incidence rate was 4.6 circumcisions per 100 person-years (py). The lowest circumcision rate was observed in males aged 20–24 years, with 0.61 circumcisions per 100 py. An estimated 1 567 253 males aged 15–49 years residing in low-MC prevalence areas were uncircumcised in 2015–2016. CONCLUSION: Tanzania has shown substantial progress in the implementation of VMMC. However, extensive spatial variation of MC prevalence still exists in the country, with some areas having an MC prevalence <60%. Here, we identified locations where VMMC needs to be intensified to reach the ~1.5 million uncircumcised males age 15–49 living in these low-MC areas, particularly for men aged 20–34.