Non-deforestation drivers of fires are increasingly important sources of aerosol and carbon dioxide emissions across Amazonia

Deforestation rates have declined substantially across the Brazilian Legal Amazon (BLA) over the period from 2000–2017. However, reductions in fire, aerosol and carbon dioxide have been far less significant than deforestation, even when accounting for inter-annual variability in precipitation. Our observations and analysis support a decoupling between fire and deforestation that has exacerbated forest degradation in the BLA. Basing aerosol and carbon dioxide emissions on deforestation rates, without accounting for forest degradation will bias these important climate and ecosystem-health parameters low, both now and in the future. Recent increases in deforestation rate since 2014 will enhance such degradation, particularly during drought-conditions, increasing emissions of aerosol and greenhouse gases. Given Brazil’s committed Nationally Determined Contribution under the Paris Agreement, failure to account for forest degradation fires will paint a false picture of prior progress and potentially have profound implications for both regional and global climate.