Getting to First Base: Developmental Trajectories of Major League Baseball Players

The road to professional baseball illustrates the complexity, variability and non-linearity of athlete development, as players may be drafted from various high school, 2 year, or 4 year programs and then placed into extensive minor league systems. The purpose of this study was to identify the different pathways to Major League Baseball (MLB) and explore their influence on career success. Performance and developmental data of 2,291 American-born MLB players who debuted between 1990 and 2010 were collected using baseball-reference.com. Three performance indicators, career games played (GP), age of debut, and wins above replacement (WAR; player’s total contributions in wins), were coupled with high school, post-secondary, and Minor League Baseball (MiLB) data. Analyses revealed 17 descriptively different pathways to MLB, which were grouped into three main streams based on the last institution attended before entrance into professional baseball. Overall, 63% of the athletes started their career directly after attending a 4 year higher education institution, 23% after high school, and 14% directly after attending a 2 year institution. Interestingly, 78% of the athletes did not sign or were not selected as high school draft picks. Position players drafted or signed from high school debuted in MLB younger (M = 23.99) and averaged significantly more MiLB GP (M = 909.13) than those drafted or signed from a 2 year (M = 25.67 and 834.41 GP) or 4 year institution (M = 25.95 and 752.33 GP). Pitchers signed or drafted from high school also debuted in MLB younger and played more MiLB games, as well as played in more MLB games than players from a 2 year or 4 year institution, F(8, 3,082) = 31.96, p ≤ 0.001. No significant differences of WAR were noted in position players or pitchers. Perhaps pitchers who are drafted from high school are afforded more opportunities to succeed, which may be indicative of sunk cost effects. This is conceivable as these players had the highest average GP but did not accrue a higher WAR. Future research may benefit from the consideration of post-secondary and/or high school statistics in combination with draft selection data, which may have important implications for improving talent identification accuracy.