Reduction in Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction is Associated with Subsequent Cardiac Events in Outpatients with Chronic Heart Failure

Left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) is critical for determining the prognosis and treatment of patients with heart failure (HF). However, the influence of serial LVEF changes in patients with stable chronic HF (CHF) has not yet been completely investigated. We analyzed data of 263 outpatients with CHF from the J-MELODIC study cohort and evaluated the frequency of cardiac events. We stratified patients into tertiles based on the relative difference in LVEF in 1 year and that at baseline. We found a significant difference in the cardiac event rate among the three groups (log-rank test, p = 0.042). We identified a relative 11% LVEF reduction as the optimal cutoff value based on the receiver operating characteristics analysis. LVEF (OR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.01–1.07; p = 0.015) and E/e′ (OR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.01–1.12; p = 0.023) at baseline were predictors of >11% LVEF reduction. After adjusting the variables including age and sex, >11% LVEF reduction was an independent predictor of subsequent cardiac events (HR, 5.79; 95% CI, 2.49–13.2; p < 0.001). In conclusion, patients with 1-year relative >11% LVEF reduction may have subsequent worsening outcomes. Such patients should be carefully followed-up as high risk population for development of cardiac events.