Using Computer Models to Predict Prevention Policy Outcomes

Computer simulation, or modeling, can illuminate the potential costs and effects of policy alternatives. The SimCom (Simulated Community) model has been under development for more than a decade and has been increasingly successful in simulating the effects of alcohol prevention policy. A recent application of SimCom to a northern California community’s prevention efforts projected the results of an intervention designed to change the perceived risk of arrest for driving under the influence. SimCom simulated the effect of this intervention on the rate of alcohol-involved injury crashes and was able to generate crash estimates for 1993 to 1995 that later closely matched actual data for the same period. Statistical analyses of the northern California (i.e., experimental) site compared with data from a matched comparison site showed significantly fewer crashes in the experimental community. Although the complexity of computer models may present many more data collection, communication, and technical challenges than traditional policy research, with further refinement, computer simulations are likely to become vital components of prevention efforts to reduce alcohol-related problems.