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Modeling other minds: Bayesian inference explains human choices in group decision-making
To make decisions in a social context, humans have to predict the behavior of others, an ability that is thought to rely on having a model of other minds known as “theory of mind.” Such a model becomes especially complex when the number of people one simultaneously interacts with is large and action...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
American Association for the Advancement of Science
2019
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6881156/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31807706 http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aax8783 |
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author | Khalvati, Koosha Park, Seongmin A. Mirbagheri, Saghar Philippe, Remi Sestito, Mariateresa Dreher, Jean-Claude Rao, Rajesh P. N. |
author_facet | Khalvati, Koosha Park, Seongmin A. Mirbagheri, Saghar Philippe, Remi Sestito, Mariateresa Dreher, Jean-Claude Rao, Rajesh P. N. |
author_sort | Khalvati, Koosha |
collection | PubMed |
description | To make decisions in a social context, humans have to predict the behavior of others, an ability that is thought to rely on having a model of other minds known as “theory of mind.” Such a model becomes especially complex when the number of people one simultaneously interacts with is large and actions are anonymous. Here, we present results from a group decision-making task known as the volunteer’s dilemma and demonstrate that a Bayesian model based on partially observable Markov decision processes outperforms existing models in quantitatively predicting human behavior and outcomes of group interactions. Our results suggest that in decision-making tasks involving large groups with anonymous members, humans use Bayesian inference to model the “mind of the group,” making predictions of others’ decisions while also simulating the effects of their own actions on the group’s dynamics in the future. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-6881156 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2019 |
publisher | American Association for the Advancement of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-68811562019-12-05 Modeling other minds: Bayesian inference explains human choices in group decision-making Khalvati, Koosha Park, Seongmin A. Mirbagheri, Saghar Philippe, Remi Sestito, Mariateresa Dreher, Jean-Claude Rao, Rajesh P. N. Sci Adv Research Articles To make decisions in a social context, humans have to predict the behavior of others, an ability that is thought to rely on having a model of other minds known as “theory of mind.” Such a model becomes especially complex when the number of people one simultaneously interacts with is large and actions are anonymous. Here, we present results from a group decision-making task known as the volunteer’s dilemma and demonstrate that a Bayesian model based on partially observable Markov decision processes outperforms existing models in quantitatively predicting human behavior and outcomes of group interactions. Our results suggest that in decision-making tasks involving large groups with anonymous members, humans use Bayesian inference to model the “mind of the group,” making predictions of others’ decisions while also simulating the effects of their own actions on the group’s dynamics in the future. American Association for the Advancement of Science 2019-11-27 /pmc/articles/PMC6881156/ /pubmed/31807706 http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aax8783 Text en Copyright © 2019 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC). http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) , which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, so long as the resultant use is not for commercial advantage and provided the original work is properly cited. |
spellingShingle | Research Articles Khalvati, Koosha Park, Seongmin A. Mirbagheri, Saghar Philippe, Remi Sestito, Mariateresa Dreher, Jean-Claude Rao, Rajesh P. N. Modeling other minds: Bayesian inference explains human choices in group decision-making |
title | Modeling other minds: Bayesian inference explains human choices in group decision-making |
title_full | Modeling other minds: Bayesian inference explains human choices in group decision-making |
title_fullStr | Modeling other minds: Bayesian inference explains human choices in group decision-making |
title_full_unstemmed | Modeling other minds: Bayesian inference explains human choices in group decision-making |
title_short | Modeling other minds: Bayesian inference explains human choices in group decision-making |
title_sort | modeling other minds: bayesian inference explains human choices in group decision-making |
topic | Research Articles |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6881156/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31807706 http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aax8783 |
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