Predictive Scoring and Risk Factors of Early Recurrence after Percutaneous Endoscopic Lumbar Discectomy

PURPOSE: To predict the early recurrence after full endoscopic lumbar discectomy, we analyzed factors related to demographic factor anatomical factors, operative method, and postoperative management, and predicted the possibility of recurrence according to the scoring system. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In this prospective study, we enrolled 300 patients who underwent 1 out of 3 surgical procedures. The patients were randomized into one of the following groups: group A (n = 100), transforaminal inside-out approach; group B (n = 100), transforaminal outside-in approach; and group C (n = 100), interlaminar approach. The clinical results were evaluated by a visual analogue scale (VAS). Related factors evaluated with points of (A) demographic factors: (1) age, (2) gender, (3) BMI, (B) anatomical factors: (4) disc degeneration scale, (5) modic change, (6) number of involved disc herniation, (7) history of discectomy (first, recurred), (8) herniated disc level, (9) disc height, (10) segmental dynamic motion, (11) disc location, (C) operation factors: (12) annulus preservation along the disc protrusion, (13) approach method (transforaminal inside-out, transforaminal outside-in, interlaminar); (D) postoperative care factors: (14) early ambulation, (15) spinal orthosis (corset) application. Among these, we analyzed statistically significant recurrence risk factors after PELD in all patients and early recurrence predicting score ratio was obtained. RESULTS: The overall recurrence rate was 9.33%. The recurrence rate was 11%, 10%, and 7% for groups A, B, and C, respectively. Average early recurrence time was 3.26 months. The change in preoperative and postoperative VAS score was from 8.07 to 1.39, 8.34 to 1.34, and 8.14 to 1.86 in groups A, B, and C, respectively. The recurrence rate based on the (1) age was <40 years: 5.22% (6/115), 41–60 years: 16.1% (20/124), and >61 years: 3.07% (2/65); (2) gender was male: 13/139 (9.35%), female: 15/161 (9.32%); (3) BMI was obese: 17.57% (13/74), overweight: 11.6% (9/77), underweight: 6.35% (4/63), and normal weight: 2.33% (2/86); (4) degeneration scale was grades 1–2: 2% (1/50), grade 3: 7.4% (10/135), and grades 4–5: 14.8% (17/115); (5) modic change was type I: 25% (3/12), type II: 14.3% (1/7), type III: 33% (1/3), and no modic change: 8.27% (23/278); (6) number of involved disc herniation was 1 level: 3.9% (5/128), 2 level: 10.4% (13/125), 3 levels: 18.9% (7/37), and 4 levels: 30% (3/10); (7) history of discectomy was first: 8.83% (25/283) and repeated: 17.65% (3/17); (8) herniated disc level was L1–L2/L2–L3/L3–L4: 3.95% (3/76) and L4–L5: 14.6% (18/123); (9) disc height was <80%: 17.14% (6/35), 81%–100%: 8.16% (12/147), and >101%: 8.5% (10/118); (10) segmental dynamic motion was 1–10°: 8.58% (20/233) and 11–20° : 11.9% (8/67); (11) disc location was central: 7.41% (2/27), foraminal: 3.03% (2/66), and inferior/superior/paracentral: 11.59% (24/207); (12) radical annulotomy was 8.05% (7/87) vs. 9.86% (21/213); (13) approach method was transforaminal (inside-out): 11% (11/100), transforaminal (outside-in): 10% (10/100), and interlaminar: 7% (7/100); (14) early ambulation was 16.42% (23/140) vs. 3.13% (5/160); and (15) spinal orthosis application was 7.35% (10/136) vs. 10.98% (18/164). According to the above results, after summation of all scores, the early recurrence predicting score: recurrence rate ratio was 1–4: 0% (0/23), 5–8: 7.1% (13/183), 9–12: 8% (6/75) and 13–16 100% (10/10). CONCLUSIONS: Early recurrence after PELD is associated with several risk factors such as BMI, degeneration scale, combined HNP, and early ambulation. If we use the predicting score, we can postulate the occurrence of early recurrence after PELD. Knowing the predictive factors prior to surgical intervention will allow us to decrease the early recurrence rate after PELD.