Amount of Escape Estimation Based on Bayesian and MCMC Approaches for RNA Interference

The amount of short interfering RNA (siRNA) escaping from the endosome has a significant impact on the efficiency of RNAi. In general, the initial injected amount of siRNAs during the experiment is known, and also the amount of siRNAs after the experiment can be revealed by the level of mRNA measured. However, it is impossible to measure the amount of siRNAs that escape from the endosome and really take part in the chemical reaction of RNAi by detecting the biological organism and its tissues. Inspired by the bottleneck effect in the virus, we introduce the Bayesian approach to infer the amount of escape based on a single type and multiple types of siRNA, respectively. With the consideration of the large calculation quantity of the accurate posterior distribution and the unavailable analytic expression of the likelihood function, our article proposes to take samples by the improved Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. The article takes the silencing gene of the synthesis of chitin and the interfering multiple target oncogene as numerical examples to show that our improved MCMC method has higher operation efficiency compared to the Bayesian approach. Our research models siRNA endosome escape using statistical methods for the first time. It perhaps provides a theoretical basis to decrease the cost of a biotic experiment for the future and the standardized statistical approaches for the amount of escape estimation.