Risk of Hospitalization in Long-Term Care Residents Living with Heart Failure: a Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND: Older adults living with heart failure (HF) in long-term care (LTC) experience frequent hospitalization. Using routinely available clinical information, we examined resident-level factors that precipitate hospitalization within 90 days of admission to LTC. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of older adults diagnosed with HF, who were admitted to LTC in Ontario, Canada, between 2011 and 2013. Multivariate logistic regression models using generalized estimating equations were developed to determine predictors of hospitalization in residents with HF. RESULTS: Entry to LTC from a hospital was the strongest predictor of future hospitalization (OR: 8.1, 95% CI: 7.1–9.3), followed by a score of three or greater on the Changes in Health, End-stage Signs and Symptoms scale, a measure of moderate to severe medical instability (O.R 4.2, 95% CI: 3.1–5.9). Other variables that increased the likelihood of hospitalization included being flagged as a high risk for falls, two or more physician visits, and increased monitoring for acute medical illness within 14 days of admission. CONCLUSION: Our findings highlight that health instability and transitions from acute to LTC will increase the likelihood of transitioning back into the hospital setting. The identified predisposing factors suggest the need for targeted prevention strategies for those in high-risk groups.