Status and prognostic nomogram of patients with Burkitt lymphoma

The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the newest status of patients diagnosed Burkitt lymphoma (BL), an aggressive lymphoma subset with a high cure rate. Furthermore, the study aimed to create prognostic nomograms to consider various prognostic factors and estimate patient survival, paving the way for clinical decision-making. A total of 4,600 patients diagnosed with BL between 1983 and 2015 were investigated, via data collected from the SEER database. The overall status of the patients was analyzed through several aspects, including incidence and survival analysis of the previous three decades using the log-rank test and the Kaplan-Meier method. In order to construct and validate the nomograms, the patient diagnosed during 2005–2015 were randomly assigned to the training cohort and validation cohort. Univariate and multivariate analyses were applied to identify independent factors that were further included in the nomograms, predicting 3- and 5-year overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). The data of the training cohort were used for internal validation and validation cohort used to external validation. C-index and calibration plots were used to validate the nomograms, comparing predicted values with actual outcomes. The incidence of BL was gradually increased from 1984 and reached its peak in 2009, at a rate of 0.491 per 100,000 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.412–0.581]. From 2009, the incidence slowly declined year by year and dropped to 0.280 per 100,000 (95% CI, 0.224–0.346). The OS and CSS rates of patients diagnosed between 2005 and 2015 were increased, in contrast with those of patients diagnosed from 1983–1993 and 1994–2004. A total of five variables, including age, race, chemotherapy, primary site and stage, proved to be the prognostic factors of BL and were used to construct the nomograms predicting 3- and 5-year OS and CSS. The internal and external calibration plots for the probability of 3- and 5-year OS and CSS were consistent between nomogram prediction and observed outcomes. The slow decline in incidence and the significantly improved cure rate make BL a disease that is no longer an urgent problem. Effective nomograms were developed to predict the OS and CSS of patients with BL.