Preventive Pharmacotherapy for Cardiovascular Disease: A Modelling Study Considering Health Gain, Costs, and Cost-Effectiveness when Stratifying by Absolute Risk

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death internationally. We aimed to model the impact of CVD preventive double therapy (a statin and anti-hypertensive) by clinician-assessed absolute risk level. An established and validated multi-state life-table model for the national New Zealand (NZ) population was adapted. The new version of the model specifically considered the 60–64-year-old male population which was stratified by risk using a published NZ-specific CVD risk equation. The intervention period of treatment was for five years, but a lifetime horizon was used for measuring benefits and costs (a five-year horizon was also implemented). We found that for this group offering double therapy was highly cost-effective in all absolute risk categories (eg, NZ$1580 per QALY gained in the >20% in 5 years risk stratum; 95%UI: Dominant to NZ$3990). Even in the lowest risk stratum (≤5% risk in 5 years), the cost per QALY was only NZ$25,500 (NZ$28,200 and US$19,100 in 2018). At an individual level, the gain for those who responded to the screening offer and commenced preventive treatment ranged from 0.6 to 4.9 months of quality-adjusted life gained (or less than a month gain with a five-year horizon). Nevertheless, at the individual level, patient considerations are critical as some people may decide that this amount of average health gain does not justify taking daily medication.