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Spread of Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis of Different Factors on Spread of Infectious Disease Based on Cellular Automata

Infectious diseases are an important cause of human death. The study of the pathogenesis, spread regularity, and development trend of infectious diseases not only provides a theoretical basis for future research on infectious diseases, but also has practical guiding significance for the prevention a...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Bin, Sheng, Sun, Gengxin, Chen, Chih-Cheng
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2019
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6926909/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31775236
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16234683
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author Bin, Sheng
Sun, Gengxin
Chen, Chih-Cheng
author_facet Bin, Sheng
Sun, Gengxin
Chen, Chih-Cheng
author_sort Bin, Sheng
collection PubMed
description Infectious diseases are an important cause of human death. The study of the pathogenesis, spread regularity, and development trend of infectious diseases not only provides a theoretical basis for future research on infectious diseases, but also has practical guiding significance for the prevention and control of their spread. In this paper, a controlled differential equation and an objective function of infectious diseases were established by mathematical modeling. Based on cellular automata theory and a compartmental model, the SLIRDS (Susceptible-Latent-Infected-Recovered-Dead-Susceptible) model was constructed, a model which can better reflect the actual infectious process of infectious diseases. Considering the spread of disease in different populations, the model combines population density, sex ratio, and age structure to set the evolution rules of the model. Finally, on the basis of the SLIRDS model, the complex spread process of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) was simulated. The simulation results are similar to the macroscopic characteristics of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) in real life, thus the accuracy and rationality of the SLIRDS model are confirmed.
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spelling pubmed-69269092019-12-23 Spread of Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis of Different Factors on Spread of Infectious Disease Based on Cellular Automata Bin, Sheng Sun, Gengxin Chen, Chih-Cheng Int J Environ Res Public Health Article Infectious diseases are an important cause of human death. The study of the pathogenesis, spread regularity, and development trend of infectious diseases not only provides a theoretical basis for future research on infectious diseases, but also has practical guiding significance for the prevention and control of their spread. In this paper, a controlled differential equation and an objective function of infectious diseases were established by mathematical modeling. Based on cellular automata theory and a compartmental model, the SLIRDS (Susceptible-Latent-Infected-Recovered-Dead-Susceptible) model was constructed, a model which can better reflect the actual infectious process of infectious diseases. Considering the spread of disease in different populations, the model combines population density, sex ratio, and age structure to set the evolution rules of the model. Finally, on the basis of the SLIRDS model, the complex spread process of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) was simulated. The simulation results are similar to the macroscopic characteristics of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) in real life, thus the accuracy and rationality of the SLIRDS model are confirmed. MDPI 2019-11-25 2019-12 /pmc/articles/PMC6926909/ /pubmed/31775236 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16234683 Text en © 2019 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Bin, Sheng
Sun, Gengxin
Chen, Chih-Cheng
Spread of Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis of Different Factors on Spread of Infectious Disease Based on Cellular Automata
title Spread of Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis of Different Factors on Spread of Infectious Disease Based on Cellular Automata
title_full Spread of Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis of Different Factors on Spread of Infectious Disease Based on Cellular Automata
title_fullStr Spread of Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis of Different Factors on Spread of Infectious Disease Based on Cellular Automata
title_full_unstemmed Spread of Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis of Different Factors on Spread of Infectious Disease Based on Cellular Automata
title_short Spread of Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis of Different Factors on Spread of Infectious Disease Based on Cellular Automata
title_sort spread of infectious disease modeling and analysis of different factors on spread of infectious disease based on cellular automata
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6926909/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31775236
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16234683
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