A Transcriptomic Immunologic Signature Predicts Favorable Outcome in Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy Treated Triple Negative Breast Tumors

Limited therapeutic options exist for the treatment of patients with triple negative breast cancer (TNBC). Neoadjuvant chemotherapy is currently the standard of care treatment in the early stages of the disease, although reliable biomarkers of response have been scarcely described. In our study we explored whether immunologic signatures associated with inflamed tumors or hot tumors could predict the outcome to neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Publicly available transcriptomic data of more than 2,000 patients were evaluated. ROC plots were generated to assess the response to therapy. Cox proportional hazards regression was computed. Kaplan-Meier plots were drawn to visualize the survival differences. Higher expression of IDO1, CXCL9, CXCL10, HLA-DRA, HLA-E, STAT1, and GZMB were associated with a higher proportion without relapse in the first 5 y after chemotherapy in TNBC. The expression of these genes was associated with a high presence of CD8 T cells in responder patients using the EPIC bioinformatic tool. The strongest effect was observed for STAT1 (p = 1.8e-05 and AUC 0.69, p = 2.7e-06). The best gene-set signature to predict favorable RFS was the combination of IDO1, LAG3, STAT1, and GZMB (HR = 0.28, CI = 0.17–0.46, p = 9.8 E-08, FDR = 1%). However, no influence on pathological complete response (pCR) was observed. Similarly, no benefit was identified in any other tumor subtype: HER2 or estrogen receptor positive. In conclusion, we describe a set of immunologic genes that predict the outcome to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in TNBC, but not pCR, suggesting that this non-time to event endpoint is not a good surrogate marker to detect the long term outcome for immune activated tumors.