Why do football clubs fail financially? A financial distress prediction model for European professional football industry

The study of financial distress has been the focus of financial research in recent decades and has led to the development of models for predicting financial distress that help assess the financial situation and the risks faced by companies. These models have focused exclusively on industrial and financial companies. However, a specific model that reflects the special characteristics of the football industry has not yet been created. Since recently the governing bodies of the football industry have increased the financial control of the clubs, as in the case of UEFA with the approval of the Financial Fair Play Regulation and demand a pronouncement on going concern in the annual financial statements of clubs as well as presenting a break-even deficit caused by losses, it seems necessary to have a model adapted to the characteristics of this industry. The present study provides a new model of prediction of financial distress for the football industry with an accuracy that exceeds 90%. It also offers a vision of the challenges facing the football industry in financial matters, helping the different interest groups to assess the financial solvency expectations of the clubs.