Personal response to immune checkpoint inhibitors of patients with advanced melanoma explained by a computational model of cellular immunity, tumor growth, and drug

Immune checkpoint inhibitors, such as pembrolizumab, are transforming clinical oncology. Yet, insufficient overall response rate, and accelerated tumor growth rate in some patients, highlight the need for identifying potential responders. To construct a computational model, identifying response predictors, and enabling immunotherapy personalization. The combined dynamics of cellular immunity, pembrolizumab, and the melanoma cancer were modeled by a set of ordinary differential equations. The model relies on a scheme of T memory stem cells, progressively differentiating into effector CD8(+) T cells, and additionally includes T cell exhaustion, reinvigoration and senescence. Clinical data of a pembrolizumab-treated patient with advanced melanoma (Patient O’) were used for model calibration and simulations. Virtual patient populations, varying in one parameter or more, were generated for retrieving clinical studies. Simulations captured the major features of Patient O’s disease, displaying a good fit to her clinical data. A temporary increase in tumor burden, as implied by the clinical data, was obtained only when assuming aberrant self-renewal rates. Variation in effector T cell cytotoxicity was sufficient for simulating dynamics that vary from rapid progression to complete cure, while variation in tumor immunogenicity has a delayed and limited effect on response. Simulations of a-specific clinical trial were in good agreement with the clinical results, demonstrating positive correlations between response to pembrolizumab and the ratio of reinvigoration to baseline tumor load. These results were obtained by assuming inter-patient variation in the toxicity of effector CD8+ T cells, and in their intrinsic division rate, as well as by assuming that the intrinsic division rate of cancer cells is correlated with the baseline tumor burden. In conclusion, hyperprogression can result from lower patient-specific effector cytotoxicity, a temporary increase in tumor load is unlikely to result from real tumor growth, and the ratio of reinvigoration to tumor load can predict personal response to pembrolizumab. Upon further validation, the model can serve for immunotherapy personalization.