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Epidemics on networks: Reducing disease transmission using health emergency declarations and peer communication

Understanding individual decisions in a world where communications and information move instantly via cell phones and the internet, contributes to the development and implementation of policies aimed at stopping or ameliorating the spread of diseases. In this manuscript, the role of official social...

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Autores principales: Azizi, Asma, Montalvo, Cesar, Espinoza, Baltazar, Kang, Yun, Castillo-Chavez, Carlos
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: KeAi Publishing 2019
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6933230/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31891014
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2019.11.002
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author Azizi, Asma
Montalvo, Cesar
Espinoza, Baltazar
Kang, Yun
Castillo-Chavez, Carlos
author_facet Azizi, Asma
Montalvo, Cesar
Espinoza, Baltazar
Kang, Yun
Castillo-Chavez, Carlos
author_sort Azizi, Asma
collection PubMed
description Understanding individual decisions in a world where communications and information move instantly via cell phones and the internet, contributes to the development and implementation of policies aimed at stopping or ameliorating the spread of diseases. In this manuscript, the role of official social network perturbations generated by public health officials to slow down or stop a disease outbreak are studied over distinct classes of static social networks. The dynamics are stochastic in nature with individuals (nodes) being assigned fixed levels of education or wealth. Nodes may change their epidemiological status from susceptible, to infected and to recovered. Most importantly, it is assumed that when the prevalence reaches a pre-determined threshold level, [Formula: see text] , information, called awareness in our framework, starts to spread, a process triggered by public health authorities. Information is assumed to spread over the same static network and whether or not one becomes a temporary informer, is a function of his/her level of education or wealth and epidemiological status. Stochastic simulations show that threshold selection [Formula: see text] and the value of the average basic reproduction number impact the final epidemic size differentially. For the Erdős-Rényi and Small-world networks, an optimal choice for [Formula: see text] that minimize the final epidemic size can be identified under some conditions while for Scale-free networks this is not case.
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spelling pubmed-69332302019-12-30 Epidemics on networks: Reducing disease transmission using health emergency declarations and peer communication Azizi, Asma Montalvo, Cesar Espinoza, Baltazar Kang, Yun Castillo-Chavez, Carlos Infect Dis Model Original Research Article Understanding individual decisions in a world where communications and information move instantly via cell phones and the internet, contributes to the development and implementation of policies aimed at stopping or ameliorating the spread of diseases. In this manuscript, the role of official social network perturbations generated by public health officials to slow down or stop a disease outbreak are studied over distinct classes of static social networks. The dynamics are stochastic in nature with individuals (nodes) being assigned fixed levels of education or wealth. Nodes may change their epidemiological status from susceptible, to infected and to recovered. Most importantly, it is assumed that when the prevalence reaches a pre-determined threshold level, [Formula: see text] , information, called awareness in our framework, starts to spread, a process triggered by public health authorities. Information is assumed to spread over the same static network and whether or not one becomes a temporary informer, is a function of his/her level of education or wealth and epidemiological status. Stochastic simulations show that threshold selection [Formula: see text] and the value of the average basic reproduction number impact the final epidemic size differentially. For the Erdős-Rényi and Small-world networks, an optimal choice for [Formula: see text] that minimize the final epidemic size can be identified under some conditions while for Scale-free networks this is not case. KeAi Publishing 2019-12-11 /pmc/articles/PMC6933230/ /pubmed/31891014 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2019.11.002 Text en © 2019 The Authors http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
spellingShingle Original Research Article
Azizi, Asma
Montalvo, Cesar
Espinoza, Baltazar
Kang, Yun
Castillo-Chavez, Carlos
Epidemics on networks: Reducing disease transmission using health emergency declarations and peer communication
title Epidemics on networks: Reducing disease transmission using health emergency declarations and peer communication
title_full Epidemics on networks: Reducing disease transmission using health emergency declarations and peer communication
title_fullStr Epidemics on networks: Reducing disease transmission using health emergency declarations and peer communication
title_full_unstemmed Epidemics on networks: Reducing disease transmission using health emergency declarations and peer communication
title_short Epidemics on networks: Reducing disease transmission using health emergency declarations and peer communication
title_sort epidemics on networks: reducing disease transmission using health emergency declarations and peer communication
topic Original Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6933230/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31891014
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2019.11.002
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