Triple junction kinematics accounts for the 2016 M(w) 7.8 Kaikoura earthquake rupture complexity

The 2016, moment magnitude (M(w)) 7.8, Kaikoura earthquake generated the most complex surface ruptures ever observed. Although likely linked with kinematic changes in central New Zealand, the driving mechanisms of such complexity remain unclear. Here, we propose an interpretation accounting for the most puzzling aspects of the 2016 rupture. We examine the partitioning of plate motion and coseismic slip during the 2016 event in and around Kaikoura and the large-scale fault kinematics, volcanism, seismicity, and slab geometry in the broader Tonga–Kermadec region. We find that the plate motion partitioning near Kaikoura is comparable to the coseismic partitioning between strike-slip motion on the Kekerengu fault and subperpendicular thrusting along the offshore West–Hikurangi megathrust. Together with measured slip rates and paleoseismological results along the Hope, Kekerengu, and Wairarapa faults, this observation suggests that the West–Hikurangi thrust and Kekerengu faults bound the southernmost tip of the Tonga–Kermadec sliver plate. The narrow region, around Kaikoura, where the 3 fastest-slipping faults of New Zealand meet, thus hosts a fault–fault–trench (FFT) triple junction, which accounts for the particularly convoluted 2016 coseismic deformation. That triple junction appears to have migrated southward since the birth of the sliver plate (around 5 to 7 million years ago). This likely drove southward stepping of strike-slip shear within the Marlborough fault system and propagation of volcanism in the North Island. Hence, on a multimillennial time scale, the apparently distributed faulting across southern New Zealand may reflect classic plate-tectonic triple-junction migration rather than diffuse deformation of the continental lithosphere.