The Effect of Chronic Wasting Disease on Resident Deer Hunting Permit Demand in Wisconsin

SIMPLE SUMMARY: Chronic wasting disease is a fatal neurodegenerative disease that affects cervids across the world. While chronic wasting disease is not known to be transmissible to humans, there is increasing concern about chronic wasting disease risks, particularly among hunters who may contact and consume infected animals. We examine demand for resident deer hunting permits in Wisconsin from 1966 to 2015 to quantify the losses to deer hunters following the discovery of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in 2002. We estimate that permit demand decreased by >5% following the discovery of the disease. Consumer surplus—or the dollar value of permits to Wisconsin deer hunters—declined by $96 million between 2002 and 2015, while permit revenues decreased by nearly $17 million. The effects of the disease’s presence slowly diminish over time. This is because total demand for permits would have declined over this period even in the absence of the disease. These findings highlight the need for joint management of both chronic wasting disease risks and hunter participation; intuitively, the economic value of protecting a resource declines with the number of use people that use it. ABSTRACT: Chronic wasting disease (CWD) has had a negative impact on deer license demand in Wisconsin since it was first found in the state in 2002. Prior work evaluates the effect of CWD on hunting permit sales, but only in the period immediately after the disease was discovered. We use data on hunting permit sales, permit price, and other demand shifters to estimate a model of deer permit demand for the period 1966–2015. We use the estimated model to quantify the effect of CWD on (1) hunter demand for deer permits; (2) hunter surplus from hunting; and (3) lost hunting permit revenues. Hunter participation declined by 5.4% after CWD was detected in 2002. Hunter surplus decreased by $96 million over this period, while permit revenues declined by nearly $17 million. The effect of CWD was greater on demand for firearm permits than for archery permits. We also find that the effects of CWD diminish over time in absolute terms. This is because permit demand would have started to decline in 2008 even in the absence of CWD. This finding implies efforts to control CWD and efforts at hunter recruitment are economic complements and should be pursued jointly to maximize hunter welfare.