Association between short-term exposure to air pollution and ischemic stroke onset: a time-stratified case-crossover analysis using a distributed lag nonlinear model in Shenzhen, China

BACKGROUND: Stroke, especially ischemic stroke (IS), has been a severe public health problem around the world. However, the association between air pollution and ischemic stroke remains ambiguous. METHODS: A total of 63, 997 IS cases aged 18 years or above in Shenzhen were collected from 2008 to 2014. We used the time-stratified case-crossover design combining with distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) to estimate the association between air pollution and IS onset. Furthermore, this study explored the variability across gender and age groups. RESULTS: The cumulative exposure-response curves were J-shaped for SO(2), NO(2) and PM(10), and V-shaped for O(3), and crossed over the relative risk (RR) of one. The 99th, 50th (median) and 1st percentiles of concentration (μg/m(3)) respectively were 37.86, 10.06, 3.71 for SO(2), 116.26, 41.29, 18.51 for NO(2), 145.94, 48.29, 16.14 for PM(10), and 111.57, 49.82, 16.00 for O(3). Extreme high-SO(2), high-NO(2), high-PM(10), high-O(3), and low-O(3) concentration increased the risk of IS, with the maximum RR values and 95% CIs: 1.50(1.22, 1.84) (99th vs median) at 0–12 lag days, 1.37(1.13, 1.67) (99th vs median) at 0–10 lag days, 1.26(1.04, 1.53) (99th vs median) at 0–12 lag days, 1.25(1.04, 1.49) (99th vs median) at 0–14 lag days, and 1.29(1.03, 1.61) (1st vs median) at 0–14 lag days, respectively. The statistically significant minimal RR value and 95% CI was 0.79(0.66,0.94) at 0–10 lag days for extreme low-PM(10). The elderly aged over 65 years were susceptible to extreme pollution conditions. Difference from the vulnerability of males to extreme high-SO(2), high-NO(2) and low-O(3), females were vulnerable to extreme high-PM(10) and high-O(3). Comparing with the elderly, adults aged 18–64 year were immune to extreme low-NO(2) and low-PM(10). However, no association between CO and IS onset was found. CONCLUSIONS: SO(2), NO(2), PM(10) and O(3) exerted non-linear and delayed influence on IS, and such influence varied with gender and age. These findings may have significant public health implications for the prevention of IS.