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Can data from native mosquitoes support determining invasive species habitats? Modelling the climatic niche of Aedes japonicus japonicus (Diptera, Culicidae) in Germany

Invasive mosquito species and the pathogens they transmit represent a serious health risk to both humans and animals. Thus, predictions on their potential geographic distribution are urgently needed. In the case of a recently invaded region, only a small number of occurrence data is typically availa...

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Autores principales: Kerkow, Antje, Wieland, Ralf, Früh, Linus, Hölker, Franz, Jeschke, Jonathan M., Werner, Doreen, Kampen, Helge
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2019
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6942025/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31773308
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00436-019-06513-5
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author Kerkow, Antje
Wieland, Ralf
Früh, Linus
Hölker, Franz
Jeschke, Jonathan M.
Werner, Doreen
Kampen, Helge
author_facet Kerkow, Antje
Wieland, Ralf
Früh, Linus
Hölker, Franz
Jeschke, Jonathan M.
Werner, Doreen
Kampen, Helge
author_sort Kerkow, Antje
collection PubMed
description Invasive mosquito species and the pathogens they transmit represent a serious health risk to both humans and animals. Thus, predictions on their potential geographic distribution are urgently needed. In the case of a recently invaded region, only a small number of occurrence data is typically available for analysis, and absence data are not reliable. To overcome this problem, we have tested whether it is possible to determine the climatic ecological niche of an invasive mosquito species by using both the occurrence data of other, native species and machine learning. The approach is based on a support vector machine and in this scenario applied to the Asian bush mosquito (Aedes japonicus japonicus) in Germany. Presence data for this species (recorded in the Germany since 2008) as well as for three native mosquito species were used to model the potential distribution of the invasive species. We trained the model with data collected from 2011 to 2014 and compared our predicted occurrence probabilities for 2015 with observations found in the field throughout 2015 to evaluate our approach. The prediction map showed a high degree of concordance with the field data. We applied the model to medium climate conditions at an early stage of the invasion (2011–2015), and developed an explanation for declining population densities in an area in northern Germany. In addition to the already known distribution areas, our model also indicates a possible spread to Saarland, southwestern Rhineland-Palatinate and in 2015 to southern Bavaria, where the species is now being increasingly detected. However, there is also evidence that the possible distribution area under the mean climate conditions was underestimated.
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spelling pubmed-69420252020-01-16 Can data from native mosquitoes support determining invasive species habitats? Modelling the climatic niche of Aedes japonicus japonicus (Diptera, Culicidae) in Germany Kerkow, Antje Wieland, Ralf Früh, Linus Hölker, Franz Jeschke, Jonathan M. Werner, Doreen Kampen, Helge Parasitol Res Arthropods and Medical Entomology - Original Paper Invasive mosquito species and the pathogens they transmit represent a serious health risk to both humans and animals. Thus, predictions on their potential geographic distribution are urgently needed. In the case of a recently invaded region, only a small number of occurrence data is typically available for analysis, and absence data are not reliable. To overcome this problem, we have tested whether it is possible to determine the climatic ecological niche of an invasive mosquito species by using both the occurrence data of other, native species and machine learning. The approach is based on a support vector machine and in this scenario applied to the Asian bush mosquito (Aedes japonicus japonicus) in Germany. Presence data for this species (recorded in the Germany since 2008) as well as for three native mosquito species were used to model the potential distribution of the invasive species. We trained the model with data collected from 2011 to 2014 and compared our predicted occurrence probabilities for 2015 with observations found in the field throughout 2015 to evaluate our approach. The prediction map showed a high degree of concordance with the field data. We applied the model to medium climate conditions at an early stage of the invasion (2011–2015), and developed an explanation for declining population densities in an area in northern Germany. In addition to the already known distribution areas, our model also indicates a possible spread to Saarland, southwestern Rhineland-Palatinate and in 2015 to southern Bavaria, where the species is now being increasingly detected. However, there is also evidence that the possible distribution area under the mean climate conditions was underestimated. Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2019-11-26 2020 /pmc/articles/PMC6942025/ /pubmed/31773308 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00436-019-06513-5 Text en © The Author(s) 2019 Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.
spellingShingle Arthropods and Medical Entomology - Original Paper
Kerkow, Antje
Wieland, Ralf
Früh, Linus
Hölker, Franz
Jeschke, Jonathan M.
Werner, Doreen
Kampen, Helge
Can data from native mosquitoes support determining invasive species habitats? Modelling the climatic niche of Aedes japonicus japonicus (Diptera, Culicidae) in Germany
title Can data from native mosquitoes support determining invasive species habitats? Modelling the climatic niche of Aedes japonicus japonicus (Diptera, Culicidae) in Germany
title_full Can data from native mosquitoes support determining invasive species habitats? Modelling the climatic niche of Aedes japonicus japonicus (Diptera, Culicidae) in Germany
title_fullStr Can data from native mosquitoes support determining invasive species habitats? Modelling the climatic niche of Aedes japonicus japonicus (Diptera, Culicidae) in Germany
title_full_unstemmed Can data from native mosquitoes support determining invasive species habitats? Modelling the climatic niche of Aedes japonicus japonicus (Diptera, Culicidae) in Germany
title_short Can data from native mosquitoes support determining invasive species habitats? Modelling the climatic niche of Aedes japonicus japonicus (Diptera, Culicidae) in Germany
title_sort can data from native mosquitoes support determining invasive species habitats? modelling the climatic niche of aedes japonicus japonicus (diptera, culicidae) in germany
topic Arthropods and Medical Entomology - Original Paper
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6942025/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31773308
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00436-019-06513-5
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