Baseline High-Resolution CT Findings Predict Acute Exacerbation of Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis: German and Japanese Cohort Study

Acute exacerbation of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (AE-IPF) is a major cause of morbidity and death in IPF. However, sensitive predictive factors of AE-IPF have not been well-investigated. To investigate whether high-resolution computed tomographic (HRCT) abnormalities predict AE-IPF in independent ethnic cohorts, this study included 121 patients with IPF (54 German and 67 Japanese; mean age, 68.5 ± 7.6 years). Two radiologists independently visually assessed the presence and extent of lung abnormalities in each patient. Twenty-two (18.2%) patients experienced AE-IPF during the follow-up. The incidence of AE-IPF was significantly higher in the Japanese patients (n = 18, 26.9%) than in the German patients (n = 4, 7.3%, p < 0.01). In the Kaplan–Meier analysis, patients with a larger extent of ground glass opacity (GGO), fibrosis, and traction bronchiectasis experienced an earlier onset of AE-IPF (p = 0.0033, 0.0088, and 0.049, respectively). In the multivariate analysis, a larger extent of GGO and fibrosis on HRCT were independent predictors of AE-IPF (p = 0.026 and 0.037, respectively). Additionally, Japanese ethnicity was independently associated with the incidence of AE-IPF after adjustment for HRCT findings (p = 0.0074). In conclusion, a larger extent of GGO and fibrosis on HRCT and Japanese ethnicity appear to be risk factors for AE-IPF.