ETAPOD: A forecast model for prediction of black pod disease outbreak in Nigeria

Food poisoning and environmental pollution are products of excessive chemical usage in Agriculture. In Nigeria, cocoa farmers apply fungicides frequently to control black pod disease (BPD), this practice is life threatening and lethal to the environment. The development of a warning system to detect BPD outbreak can help minimize excessive usage of fungicide by farmers. 8 models (MRM(1)-MRM(8)) were developed and 5 (MRM(1)-MRM(5)) selected for optimization and performance check. MRM(5) (ETAPOD) performed better than the other forecast models. ETAPOD had 100% performance rating for BPD prediction in Ekiti (2009, 2010, 2011 and 2015) with model efficiency of 95–100%. The performance of the model was rated 80% in 2010 and 2015 (Ondo) with model efficiency of 85–90%, 70% in 2011 (Osun) with model efficiency of 81–84%, 60% in 2010 (Ondo and Osun) and 2015 (Osun) with model efficiency of 75–80%, 40% in 2009 (Osun) with model efficiency of 65–69% and 0% 1n 2011 (Ondo) with model efficiency between 0 and 49%. ETAPOD is a simplified BPD detection device for the past, present and future.