Drivers of change in China’s energy-related CO(2) emissions

CO(2) emissions are of global concern because of climate change. China has become the largest CO(2) emitter in the world and presently accounts for 30% of global emissions. Here, we analyze the major drivers of energy-related CO(2) emissions in China from 1978 when the reform and opening-up policy was launched. We find that 1) there has been a 6-fold increase in energy-related CO(2) emissions, which was driven primarily (176%) by economic growth followed by population growth (16%), while the effects of energy intensity (−79%) and carbon intensity (−13%) slowed the growth of carbon emissions over most of this period; 2) energy-related CO(2) emissions are positively related to per capita gross domestic product (GDP), population growth rate, carbon intensity, and energy intensity; and 3) a portfolio of command-and-control policies affecting the drivers has altered the total emission trend. However, given the major role of China in global climate change mitigation, significant future reductions in China’s CO(2) emissions will require transformation toward low-carbon energy systems.