Pretreatment ADC is not a prognostic factor for local recurrences in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma when clinical T-stage is known

OBJECTIVES: Pretreatment identification of radio-insensitive head and neck squamous cell carcinomas (HNSCC) would affect treatment modality selection. The apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) of a tumor could be a predictor of local recurrence. However, little is known about its prognostic value next to known factors such as clinical T-stage. The aim of the present study is to determine the added value of pretreatment ADC to clinical T-stage as a prognostic factor for local recurrence. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included 217 patients with HNSCC treated with (chemo)radiotherapy between April 2009 and December 2015. All patients underwent diffusion-weighted MRI prior to treatment. Median ADC values of all tumors were obtained using a semi-automatic delineation method. Univariate models containing ADC and T-stage were compared with a multivariable model containing both variables. RESULTS: Fifty-eight patients experienced a local recurrence within 3 years. On average, the ADC value in the group of patients with a recurrence was 1.01 versus 1.00 (10(−3) mm(2)/s) in the group without a recurrence. Univariate analysis showed no significant association between tumor ADC and local recurrence within 3 years after (chemo)radiotherapy (p = 0.09). Cox regression showed that clinical T-stage was an independent predictor of local recurrence and adding ADC to the model did not increase its performance. CONCLUSION: Pretreatment ADC has no added value as a prognostic factor for local recurrence to clinical T-stage. KEY POINTS: • Pretreatment identification of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma patients who do not benefit from (chemo)radiotherapy could improve personalized cancer care. • The apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) obtained from diffusion-weighted MRI has been reported to be a prognostic factor for local recurrence. • In this study, ADC has no added value as a prognostic factor compared with clinical T-stage. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s00330-019-06426-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.