Survival and Prognostic Predictors of Primary Arteriovenous Fistula for Hemodialysis

Objectives: This study aims to evaluate the survival and prognostic predictors of arteriovenous fistulas (AVFs) among patients undergoing AVF creation. The significant predictors were incorporated into a prognostic model to determine its prognostic performance for five-year AVF survival. Materials and Methods: Data on 290 patients who underwent first-time AVF creation and who had been followed up for at least 5 years or until AVF failure were reviewed. The Kaplan–Meier survival curves and Cox proportional hazards model were generated to determine the AVF survival and associated prognostic predictors. Significant predictors were used to derive a prognostic model. Results: The mean age of the patients was 59.7±14.6 years, and the 5-year AVF survival rate was 34.5%. Three features were found to be independent prognostic factors for the five-year AVF survival: old age, diabetes mellitus, and prior central venous catheter placement. These three significant factors were integrated into a prognostic scoring model that ranged from zero to five points. According to this model, the patients whose scores were 0, 1, 2, 3 and 4 or more had five-year AVF survival rates of 60.0%, 45.3%, 36.6%, 15.0%, and 2.9%, respectively. Conclusion: The five-year survival rate of AVFs was modest, and a prognostic model could excellently estimate the five-year AVF survival.