Long-term predictive value of acute kidney injury classification in diffuse proliferative lupus nephritis with acute kidney injury

BACKGROUND: The long-term predictive ability of acute kidney injury (AKI) classification based on “Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes”(KDIGO) AKI diagnosis criteria has not been clinically validated in diffuse proliferative lupus nephritis (DPLN) patients with AKI. Our objective was to assess the long-term predictive value of KDIGO AKI classification in DPLN patients with AKI. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study was conducted by reviewing medical records of biopsy-proven DPLN patients with AKI from the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University between Jan 1, 2000 and Dec 31, 2014. Multivariate Cox regression and survival analysis were performed. RESULTS: One hundred sixty-seven DPLN patients were enrolled,82(49%) patients were normal renal function (No AKI), 40(24%) patients entered AKI-1 stage (AKI-1), 26(16%) patients entered AKI-2 stage (AKI-2) and 19(16%) patients entered AKI-3 stage (AKI-3). The mean follow-up of all patients was 5.1 ± 3.8 years. The patient survival without ESRD of all patients was 86% at 5 years and 79% at 10 years. The patient survival rate without ESRD at 10 yr was 94.5% for No AKI patients, 81.8% for AKI-1 patients, 44.9% for AKI-2 patients and 14.6% for AKI-3 patients. The area under the ROC curve for KDIGO AKI classification to predict the primary end point was 0.83 (95% CI: 0.73–0.93) (P < 0.001). In Cox regression analysis, AKI stage was independently associated with primary endpoint, with an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 3.8(95% CI 2.1–6.7, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Severity of AKI based on KDIGO AKI category was associated with progression to ESRD in DPLN patients. Analytical data also confirmed the good discriminative power of the KDIGO AKI classification system for predicting long-term prognosis of DPLN patients with AKI.