The Predictive Properties of Psychiatric Diagnoses, Dynamic Risk and Dynamic Risk Change Assessed by the VRS-SO in Forensically Admitted and Released Sexual Offenders

Psychiatric diagnoses, static risk factors, and criminogenic needs at time of admission and release were examined in a mentally ill sample of psychiatrically detained sexual offenders. Although clinically found to be at low or even very low risk at discharge, 12% reoffended sexually over an average follow-up of 7 years. Psychotic disorders were present in only 5% of offenders, whereas 93% had a personality disorder diagnosis and 76% a paraphilic disorder diagnosis. Only exhibitionism and alcohol misuse were associated with relapse. Static risk factors captured by the Static-99 also did not significantly predict recidivism; however, the VRS-SO—a structured risk assessment tool that assesses criminogenic needs and changes in risk from treatment or other change agents, rated retrospectively on the present sample—predicted sexual recidivism as well as any new imprisonment or psychiatric placement. In particular, the sexual deviance factor of the VRS-SO had large in magnitude predictive associations with sexual reoffending, while treatment related changes assessed on this factor were significantly related to non-reoffending. Findings corroborate the advantages of structured risk assessment and structured change monitoring, particularly for complex clientele such as mentally ill sexual offenders.