Estimating epidemic exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number

The initial exponential growth rate of an epidemic is an important measure of the severeness of the epidemic, and is also closely related to the basic reproduction number. Estimating the growth rate from the epidemic curve can be a challenge, because of its decays with time. For fast epidemics, the...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor principal: Ma, Junling
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: KeAi Publishing 2020
Materias:
Confronting Infectious Disease Models with Public Health Data; Edited by Prof. Michael Li, Prof. Julien Arino, Prof. Junling Ma, Prof. Zen Jin
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6962332/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31956741
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2019.12.009
Descripción
Sumario:The initial exponential growth rate of an epidemic is an important measure of the severeness of the epidemic, and is also closely related to the basic reproduction number. Estimating the growth rate from the epidemic curve can be a challenge, because of its decays with time. For fast epidemics, the estimation is subject to over-fitting due to the limited number of data points available, which also limits our choice of models for the epidemic curve. We discuss the estimation of the growth rate using maximum likelihood method and simple models.

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