Estimating epidemic exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number

The initial exponential growth rate of an epidemic is an important measure of the severeness of the epidemic, and is also closely related to the basic reproduction number. Estimating the growth rate from the epidemic curve can be a challenge, because of its decays with time. For fast epidemics, the...

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Autor principal: Ma, Junling
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: KeAi Publishing 2020
Materias:
Confronting Infectious Disease Models with Public Health Data; Edited by Prof. Michael Li, Prof. Julien Arino, Prof. Junling Ma, Prof. Zen Jin
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6962332/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31956741
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2019.12.009
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author Ma, Junling
author_facet Ma, Junling
author_sort Ma, Junling
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description The initial exponential growth rate of an epidemic is an important measure of the severeness of the epidemic, and is also closely related to the basic reproduction number. Estimating the growth rate from the epidemic curve can be a challenge, because of its decays with time. For fast epidemics, the estimation is subject to over-fitting due to the limited number of data points available, which also limits our choice of models for the epidemic curve. We discuss the estimation of the growth rate using maximum likelihood method and simple models.
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spelling pubmed-69623322020-01-17 Estimating epidemic exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number Ma, Junling Infect Dis Model Confronting Infectious Disease Models with Public Health Data; Edited by Prof. Michael Li, Prof. Julien Arino, Prof. Junling Ma, Prof. Zen Jin The initial exponential growth rate of an epidemic is an important measure of the severeness of the epidemic, and is also closely related to the basic reproduction number. Estimating the growth rate from the epidemic curve can be a challenge, because of its decays with time. For fast epidemics, the estimation is subject to over-fitting due to the limited number of data points available, which also limits our choice of models for the epidemic curve. We discuss the estimation of the growth rate using maximum likelihood method and simple models. KeAi Publishing 2020-01-08 /pmc/articles/PMC6962332/ /pubmed/31956741 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2019.12.009 Text en © 2019 The Author http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Confronting Infectious Disease Models with Public Health Data; Edited by Prof. Michael Li, Prof. Julien Arino, Prof. Junling Ma, Prof. Zen Jin
Ma, Junling
Estimating epidemic exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number
title Estimating epidemic exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number
title_full Estimating epidemic exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number
title_fullStr Estimating epidemic exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number
title_full_unstemmed Estimating epidemic exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number
title_short Estimating epidemic exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number
title_sort estimating epidemic exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number
topic Confronting Infectious Disease Models with Public Health Data; Edited by Prof. Michael Li, Prof. Julien Arino, Prof. Junling Ma, Prof. Zen Jin
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6962332/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31956741
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2019.12.009
work_keys_str_mv AT majunling estimatingepidemicexponentialgrowthrateandbasicreproductionnumber

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