Predictive Risk-scoring Model For Central Lymph Node Metastasis and Predictors of Recurrence in Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma

There are about half of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) patients with the experience of central lymph node metastasis (CLNM), while the model to predict high-risk groups of CLNM from PTC patients is uncertain. The aim of this study was to evaluate candidate risk factors of CLNM and identify risk factors of recurrence to guide the postoperative therapeutic decision and follow-up for physicians and patients.A total of 4107 patients(4884 lesions) who underwent lymph node dissection in two hospitals from 2005 to 2014 were evaluated. CLNM risk was stratified and a risk-scoring model was developed on the basis of the identified independent risk factors for CLNM. Cox’s proportional hazards regression model was used to investigate the risk factors for recurrence.CLNM was proved in 37.96% (1559/4107) of patients and 33.96% (1659/4884) of lesions. In the multivariate analysis, Male, Age ≤35 years, Tumor size >0.5 cm,Lobe dissemination (+), Psammoma body (+), Multifocality and Capsule invasion (+) were independent risk predictors of CLNM (P < 0.01). A 14-point risk-scoring model was built to predict the stratified CLNM in PTC patients and the area under receiver operating characteristic curve of the model for the prediction of CLNM was 0.672 (95% CI: 0.656–0.688) (P < 0.01). COX regression model showed that Tumor size >0.5 cm, Lobe dissemination (+), Multifocality and CLNM were significant risk factors associated with poor outcomes. The research suggested that prophylactic CLN dissection could be performed in patients with total score ≥4 according to the risk-scoring model, and more aggressive treatment and more frequent follow-up should be considered for patients with Tumor size >0.5 cm, Lobe dissemination (+), Multifocality and CLNM.