Predicting Chronic Subdural Hematoma Recurrence and Stroke Outcomes While Withholding Antiplatelet and Anticoagulant Agents

Introduction: The aging of the western population and the increased use of oral anticoagulation (OAC) and antiplatelet drugs (APD) will result in a clinical dilemma on how to balance the recurrence risk of chronic subdural hematoma (cSDH) with the risk of withholding blood thinners. Objective: To identify features that predicts recurrence, thromboembolism (TEE), hospital stay and mortality. To identify the optimal window for resuming APD or OAC. Methods: We performed a retrospective multivariate analysis of a prospectively collected database. We then build machine learning models for outcomes prediction. Results: We identified 596 patients. The rate of recurrence was 22.17%, that of thromboembolism was 0.9% and that of mortality was 14.78%. Smoking, platelet dysfunction, CKD, and alcohol use were independent predictors of higher recurrence, while resolution of the SDH was protective. OAC use had higher odds of developing TEEs. CKD, developing a new neurological deficit or a TEEs were independent predictors of higher mortality. We find the optimal time of resuming OAC to be after 2 days but before 21 days as these patients had the lowest recurrence of bleeding associated with a low risk of stroke. The ML model achieved an accuracy of 93, precision of 0.84 and recall of 0.80 for recurrence prediction. ML models for hospital stay performed poorly (R(2) = 0.33). ML model for stroke was overfitted given the low number of events. Conclusion: ML modeling is feasible. However, large well-designed prospective multicenter studies are needed for accurate ML so that clinicians can balance the risks of recurrence with the risk of TEEs, especially for high-risk anticoagulated patients.