Cargando…

Enhancing the ENSO Predictability beyond the Spring Barrier

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant interseasonal–interannual variability in the tropical Pacific and substantial efforts have been dedicated to predicting its occurrence and variability because of its extensive global impacts. However, ENSO predictability has been reduced in the 21(...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Chen, Han-Ching, Tseng, Yu-Heng, Hu, Zeng-Zhen, Ding, Ruiqiang
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6976663/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31969614
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-57853-7
_version_ 1783490351983493120
author Chen, Han-Ching
Tseng, Yu-Heng
Hu, Zeng-Zhen
Ding, Ruiqiang
author_facet Chen, Han-Ching
Tseng, Yu-Heng
Hu, Zeng-Zhen
Ding, Ruiqiang
author_sort Chen, Han-Ching
collection PubMed
description El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant interseasonal–interannual variability in the tropical Pacific and substantial efforts have been dedicated to predicting its occurrence and variability because of its extensive global impacts. However, ENSO predictability has been reduced in the 21(st) century, and the impact of extratropical atmosphere on the tropics has intensified during the past 2 decades, making the ENSO more complicated and harder to predict. Here, by combining tropical preconditions/ocean–atmosphere interaction with extratropical precursors, we provide a novel approach to noticeably increase the ENSO prediction skill beyond the spring predictability barrier. The success of increasing the prediction skill results mainly from the longer lead-time of the extratropical–tropical ocean-to-atmosphere interaction process, especially for the first 2 decades of the 21(st) century.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-6976663
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2020
publisher Nature Publishing Group UK
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-69766632020-01-29 Enhancing the ENSO Predictability beyond the Spring Barrier Chen, Han-Ching Tseng, Yu-Heng Hu, Zeng-Zhen Ding, Ruiqiang Sci Rep Article El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant interseasonal–interannual variability in the tropical Pacific and substantial efforts have been dedicated to predicting its occurrence and variability because of its extensive global impacts. However, ENSO predictability has been reduced in the 21(st) century, and the impact of extratropical atmosphere on the tropics has intensified during the past 2 decades, making the ENSO more complicated and harder to predict. Here, by combining tropical preconditions/ocean–atmosphere interaction with extratropical precursors, we provide a novel approach to noticeably increase the ENSO prediction skill beyond the spring predictability barrier. The success of increasing the prediction skill results mainly from the longer lead-time of the extratropical–tropical ocean-to-atmosphere interaction process, especially for the first 2 decades of the 21(st) century. Nature Publishing Group UK 2020-01-22 /pmc/articles/PMC6976663/ /pubmed/31969614 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-57853-7 Text en © The Author(s) 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
spellingShingle Article
Chen, Han-Ching
Tseng, Yu-Heng
Hu, Zeng-Zhen
Ding, Ruiqiang
Enhancing the ENSO Predictability beyond the Spring Barrier
title Enhancing the ENSO Predictability beyond the Spring Barrier
title_full Enhancing the ENSO Predictability beyond the Spring Barrier
title_fullStr Enhancing the ENSO Predictability beyond the Spring Barrier
title_full_unstemmed Enhancing the ENSO Predictability beyond the Spring Barrier
title_short Enhancing the ENSO Predictability beyond the Spring Barrier
title_sort enhancing the enso predictability beyond the spring barrier
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6976663/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31969614
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-57853-7
work_keys_str_mv AT chenhanching enhancingtheensopredictabilitybeyondthespringbarrier
AT tsengyuheng enhancingtheensopredictabilitybeyondthespringbarrier
AT huzengzhen enhancingtheensopredictabilitybeyondthespringbarrier
AT dingruiqiang enhancingtheensopredictabilitybeyondthespringbarrier