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Enhancing the ENSO Predictability beyond the Spring Barrier
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant interseasonal–interannual variability in the tropical Pacific and substantial efforts have been dedicated to predicting its occurrence and variability because of its extensive global impacts. However, ENSO predictability has been reduced in the 21(...
Autores principales: | , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6976663/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31969614 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-57853-7 |
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author | Chen, Han-Ching Tseng, Yu-Heng Hu, Zeng-Zhen Ding, Ruiqiang |
author_facet | Chen, Han-Ching Tseng, Yu-Heng Hu, Zeng-Zhen Ding, Ruiqiang |
author_sort | Chen, Han-Ching |
collection | PubMed |
description | El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant interseasonal–interannual variability in the tropical Pacific and substantial efforts have been dedicated to predicting its occurrence and variability because of its extensive global impacts. However, ENSO predictability has been reduced in the 21(st) century, and the impact of extratropical atmosphere on the tropics has intensified during the past 2 decades, making the ENSO more complicated and harder to predict. Here, by combining tropical preconditions/ocean–atmosphere interaction with extratropical precursors, we provide a novel approach to noticeably increase the ENSO prediction skill beyond the spring predictability barrier. The success of increasing the prediction skill results mainly from the longer lead-time of the extratropical–tropical ocean-to-atmosphere interaction process, especially for the first 2 decades of the 21(st) century. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-6976663 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-69766632020-01-29 Enhancing the ENSO Predictability beyond the Spring Barrier Chen, Han-Ching Tseng, Yu-Heng Hu, Zeng-Zhen Ding, Ruiqiang Sci Rep Article El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant interseasonal–interannual variability in the tropical Pacific and substantial efforts have been dedicated to predicting its occurrence and variability because of its extensive global impacts. However, ENSO predictability has been reduced in the 21(st) century, and the impact of extratropical atmosphere on the tropics has intensified during the past 2 decades, making the ENSO more complicated and harder to predict. Here, by combining tropical preconditions/ocean–atmosphere interaction with extratropical precursors, we provide a novel approach to noticeably increase the ENSO prediction skill beyond the spring predictability barrier. The success of increasing the prediction skill results mainly from the longer lead-time of the extratropical–tropical ocean-to-atmosphere interaction process, especially for the first 2 decades of the 21(st) century. Nature Publishing Group UK 2020-01-22 /pmc/articles/PMC6976663/ /pubmed/31969614 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-57853-7 Text en © The Author(s) 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
spellingShingle | Article Chen, Han-Ching Tseng, Yu-Heng Hu, Zeng-Zhen Ding, Ruiqiang Enhancing the ENSO Predictability beyond the Spring Barrier |
title | Enhancing the ENSO Predictability beyond the Spring Barrier |
title_full | Enhancing the ENSO Predictability beyond the Spring Barrier |
title_fullStr | Enhancing the ENSO Predictability beyond the Spring Barrier |
title_full_unstemmed | Enhancing the ENSO Predictability beyond the Spring Barrier |
title_short | Enhancing the ENSO Predictability beyond the Spring Barrier |
title_sort | enhancing the enso predictability beyond the spring barrier |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6976663/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31969614 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-57853-7 |
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